481

FXUS65 KABQ 020931

AFDABQ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

330 AM MDT WED MAY 2 2001



DEEP TROUGH TO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE GREAT BASIN WITH UPPER LOW

CENTER CLOSING OFF TONIGHT NEAR UT/AZ BORDER. MODELS DIVERGE AT

THIS POINT AS TO WHERE UPPER LOW MOVES NEXT. NGM AND ESPECIALLY

ETA AND MESOETA DRIFT UPPER LOW SE INTO ERN NM BY FRI...WHILE AVN

LIFTS UPPER LOW SLOWLY N THROUGH UT ON FRI. HUGE DIFFERENCES IN LOW

LEVELS AS WELL WITH ETA PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO THE NE AND EC TODAY

AND ON DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH E WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY

LATE TONIGHT. NGM AND ESPECIALLY AVN DO NOT PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY

NEARLY AS FAR S AND W. WITH THESE DIFFERENT POSITIONS IN LOW AND

UPPER LEVELS INCREDIBLE MOISTURE CONTRAST IN THE MODELS WITH AVN

QUITE DRY THROUGH FRI AND ETA HAS TONS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW

TON AND THU AND ACROSS THE N THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ETA WOULD EVEN HAVE

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.



ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED

WITH A SHORT WAVE OR TWO OVER BAJA OF CA AND OLD MEXICO THAT MODELS

TO VARIOUS DEGREES TRY TO BRING UP TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO SRN AND ERN

NM. WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK TODAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH TO

THE W THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION IF NOT

LATE TODAY THEN TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AND ERN ZONES...WHILE PRECIP

BREAKS OUT IN THE NW WITH APPROACHING DYNAMICS FROM UPPER LOW. 



HERE IS WHAT WE HAVE COME WITH. CURRENT FORECAST MORE OR LESS TAKES

A COMPROMISE OF THE MODELS AND LEANS TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE

NGM. WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND AND NOT GO TOWARD EITHER EXTREME OF THE

ETA OR AVN AT THIS POINT. ALSO BASE THIS DECISION ON 06Z MESOETA NOW

COMING IN. NEW RUN DOES NOT DROP UPPER LOW AS FAR S AS PREVIOUS RUN

WITH LOW CENTER ALONG SE UT/NE AZ BODER THU EVE...JUST E OF NGM

POSITION. NEW MESOETA ALSO DOES NOT PRESS COLD FRONT DOWN ERN PLAINS

AS FAR TODAY OR INTO THE SE AS MUCH TONIGHT/THU AS PREVIOUS RUN OR

CURRENT ETA.



WITH FALLING HEIGHTS NW AND FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE NE TODAY MOST

ZONES NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NICE FOR EARLY MAY. WILL

GO DRY MOST ZONES EXCEPT FAR N WILL GO LOW CHANCE POPS LATE. WOULD

NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SHOWER OR TSTM TRIED TO FIRE UP ACROSS OUR

SRN ZONES LATE TODAY. WINDY MOST AREAS. CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES

TONIGHT MOST ZONES AND WILL EVEN MENTION SNOW IN NRN MOUNTAINS ABOVE

8500 FEET. COOLER AREAWIDE THU WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEST

CHANCES N AND E. BREEZY TO WINDY THU. PRECIP CONTINUES THU NIGHT WITH

MORE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NRN MOUNTAINS. E WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE

VALLEY.



HAVE NOT THOUGHT MUCH ABOUT LONG RANGE. UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE

STATE FRI/SAT AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY N. DRY AND

WARMER SUN. WILL ADJUST MON/TUE AS MRF STILL SHOWING STRONG RIDGING

W COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF NRN ROCKIES INTO

CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NE NM MON AND MOST

AREAS BY TUE. WILL MENTION COOLER IN THE NE MON AND ELSEWHERE TUE

WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE E TUE. 



ABQ NE 083/052 074/045 072 40012

SAF NE 077/042 063/038 061 40023

TCC BC 082/046 064/046 064 40043



.ABQ...NONE.



CHJ