104 FXUS65 KABQ 030841 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 240 AM MDT THU MAY 3 2001 MODELS STILL AT ODDS AS TO THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT AND THEREFORE STILL DIVERGE GREATLY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY AVN/NGM AND WET ETA. GENERALLY FAVOR ETA/MESOETA POSITION OF UPPER AND ESPECIALLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES WITH MESOETA MOISTURE OUTPUT. SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING NE OUT OF SE NM INTO TX PANHANDLE THAT HELPED FIRE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TO OUR E. ANOTHER SPOKE OF PVA EVIDENT OVER NE AZ/FAR NW NM WITH A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN CLOVIS AND ROSWELL AND BACKUP UP AGAINST CNTRL MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS FROM THE E HERE NOW. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WILL BE SOCKED IN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. THE W AND S WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS FROM THE SW WILL LIMIT OR SUPRESS CONVECTION IN OUR SW ZONES. WILL KEEP A 10 POP IN FOR AROUND HERE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL JUMP CONSIDERABLY HERE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TO SET UP TO OUR W THIS AM. COULD SEE ATTEMPT AT A SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR HERE THIS PM. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THOUGH AND CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR MUCH. BREEZY TO WINDY AREAWIDE WITH HIGHEST WINDS PROBABLY FROM THE GILA TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE MOST SUN EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE NE CLOUDY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW HIGHER NRN AND WRN MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION IN THE SKI AREAS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS SRN BAJA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR TONIGHT BUT STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE S AND E OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR SE ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP W AND SW ZONES. BREEZY AND COOL FOR EARLY MAY ALL AREAS FRI. TROUGH TO LIFT N OF NM OVER THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WX. WILL BE GLAD TO SEE THIS ONE LEAVE. WILL KEEP SUN DRY AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NRN ROCKIES WILL DROP SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD SLIP INTO THE NE BY THE END OF SUN. WILL GO WITH COOLER AND CLOUDS FOR MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALL ERN ZONES. NEW MRF NO LONGER HAS 2 DAY RAINSTORM THAT IS SHOWED YESTERDAY FOR NM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT BUY INTO THE MRF SPILLING THAT MUCH MOISTURE W OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR TUE AND WED. WILL KEEP THE W DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE E SHOULD REMAIN COOL TUE AND WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SWD TO INCLUDE ALL THE ERN PLAINS. DRY AND WARMER WED E. ABQ NB 076/047 071/044 074 40111 SAF NE 070/040 064/038 068 40222 TCC CC 067/047 070/044 078 40233 .ABQ...NONE CHJ  104 FXUS65 KABQ 030841 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 240 AM MDT THU MAY 3 2001 MODELS STILL AT ODDS AS TO THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE FRONT AND THEREFORE STILL DIVERGE GREATLY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY AVN/NGM AND WET ETA. GENERALLY FAVOR ETA/MESOETA POSITION OF UPPER AND ESPECIALLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES WITH MESOETA MOISTURE OUTPUT. SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING NE OUT OF SE NM INTO TX PANHANDLE THAT HELPED FIRE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TO OUR E. ANOTHER SPOKE OF PVA EVIDENT OVER NE AZ/FAR NW NM WITH A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN CLOVIS AND ROSWELL AND BACKUP UP AGAINST CNTRL MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS FROM THE E HERE NOW. LOOKS LIKE THE NE WILL BE SOCKED IN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. THE W AND S WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS FROM THE SW WILL LIMIT OR SUPRESS CONVECTION IN OUR SW ZONES. WILL KEEP A 10 POP IN FOR AROUND HERE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL JUMP CONSIDERABLY HERE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND DEWPOINT BOUNDARY TO SET UP TO OUR W THIS AM. COULD SEE ATTEMPT AT A SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR HERE THIS PM. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THOUGH AND CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR MUCH. BREEZY TO WINDY AREAWIDE WITH HIGHEST WINDS PROBABLY FROM THE GILA TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE MOST SUN EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE NE CLOUDY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW HIGHER NRN AND WRN MOUNTAINS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION IN THE SKI AREAS. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMING ACROSS SRN BAJA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR TONIGHT BUT STEERING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE S AND E OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR SE ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP W AND SW ZONES. BREEZY AND COOL FOR EARLY MAY ALL AREAS FRI. TROUGH TO LIFT N OF NM OVER THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WX. WILL BE GLAD TO SEE THIS ONE LEAVE. WILL KEEP SUN DRY AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NRN ROCKIES WILL DROP SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT COULD SLIP INTO THE NE BY THE END OF SUN. WILL GO WITH COOLER AND CLOUDS FOR MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALL ERN ZONES. NEW MRF NO LONGER HAS 2 DAY RAINSTORM THAT IS SHOWED YESTERDAY FOR NM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT BUY INTO THE MRF SPILLING THAT MUCH MOISTURE W OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR TUE AND WED. WILL KEEP THE W DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE E SHOULD REMAIN COOL TUE AND WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SWD TO INCLUDE ALL THE ERN PLAINS. DRY AND WARMER WED E. ABQ NB 076/047 071/044 074 40111 SAF NE 070/040 064/038 068 40222 TCC CC 067/047 070/044 078 40233 .ABQ...NONE CHJ