137

FXUS65 KABQ 032255

AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

500 PM MDT THU MAY 3 2001



FIRST OF ALL I JUST WANT TO SAY THAT I PROBABLY HAVE WAY TOO MUCH 

CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME SUCH 

A MESS AND WITH SO MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS...I PUT SOME CHANCE OF TS 

JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT LEAST THRU THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD. 

UPPER LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY AS FORECAST BY MODELS AND CONTINUES TO 

HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST.



WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS 

SHOULD DO A GOOD JOB OF WRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OUT OF LOW 

LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY...VERY STRONG DYNAMICS AND 

LIFT ALONG THE FRONT HAVE OVERCOME A LACK OF MOISTURE. QUITE AN 

IMPRESSIVE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH LAST SFC OBS SHOWING 34 

DEGREES AT KDRO AND 43 AT KCAO.



PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND 

NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE IN NE 

AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR MTNS. SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN LEAST LIKELY DUE 

TO DRY SLOTTING. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE WERE 

FOR SATURDAY. ADDED A LOT OF BREEZY/WINDY WITH UPPER LOW EXITING AND 

STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING AS SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND 

NORTHWEST. EXTENDED LOOKS FINE. JWS



ABQ BB 047/071 043/073 044 46111

SAF BB 039/063 037/067 038 46222

TCC EN 048/069 046/074 047 46432



.ABQ...NONE.












137

FXUS65 KABQ 032255

AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

500 PM MDT THU MAY 3 2001



FIRST OF ALL I JUST WANT TO SAY THAT I PROBABLY HAVE WAY TOO MUCH 

CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN HAS BECOME SUCH 

A MESS AND WITH SO MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS...I PUT SOME CHANCE OF TS 

JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AT LEAST THRU THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD. 

UPPER LOW MOVING VERY SLOWLY AS FORECAST BY MODELS AND CONTINUES TO 

HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST.



WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS UPPER DYNAMICS 

SHOULD DO A GOOD JOB OF WRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OUT OF LOW 

LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY...VERY STRONG DYNAMICS AND 

LIFT ALONG THE FRONT HAVE OVERCOME A LACK OF MOISTURE. QUITE AN 

IMPRESSIVE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC...WITH LAST SFC OBS SHOWING 34 

DEGREES AT KDRO AND 43 AT KCAO.



PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND 

NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE IN NE 

AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR MTNS. SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN LEAST LIKELY DUE 

TO DRY SLOTTING. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE WERE 

FOR SATURDAY. ADDED A LOT OF BREEZY/WINDY WITH UPPER LOW EXITING AND 

STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING AS SFC HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND 

NORTHWEST. EXTENDED LOOKS FINE. JWS



ABQ BB 047/071 043/073 044 46111

SAF BB 039/063 037/067 038 46222

TCC EN 048/069 046/074 047 46432



.ABQ...NONE.