116

FXUS64 KAMA 022109

AFDAMA



TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

408 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



ASIDE FROM THE FRONT BEING JUST A LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND TEMPS A

LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY FCSTD...EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE ON

TARGET. ETA HAS DONE THE WITH FCSTNG MOVEMENT OF FRONT WHILE THE AVN

CONTINUES TO DO THE BEST WITH MID/UPR LVL FEATURES. THEREFORE...ONLY

MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN APPLIED TO ONGOING FCST.



COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN OK/ERN TX

PNHDL/SOUTH PLAINS RGN...ORIENTED FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO SE OF CLAUDE

TO NEAR TULIA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO PARALLEL FRONT ABOUT

50 MILES SE OF FRONT WITH INITIAL CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR

DRYLINE/TROUGH TRIPLE-POINT IN SERN HALL COUNTY AT THIS TIME.



CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN 1/2 OF CWA TONIGHT

WITH LULL IN THE ACTION TOMORROW BEFORE BETTER CHANCES OF

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HVY RA FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS

IS PRIMARILY DUE TO NRN MEX MINOR WAVE LIFTING NE OVER W TX

TONIGHT...THEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AND UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE

OVERSPREADING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THU NIGHT.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS WARM FRONT FRI MORNG WITH DRYLINE

DEVELOPING NWD ACRS THE WRN PNHDLS DURING THE DAY. CONTINUE WITH THE

IDEA OF DRYLINE LIGHTING UP AS IT ADVANCES EAST IN RESPONSE TO SWRN

U.S. UPR LOW LIFTING NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MAINTAINED

SAT PRECIP...HOWEVER DRIER BL AIR WILL OBVIOUSLY ADVECT INTO THE RGN

FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE DRYLINE.



LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS SOLNS CONTINUE

TO DIFFER BY DAY 5. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE WX FCST FOR

SUN AND MON FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY COOLER WX TUE AND WED IN WAKE OF

ANOTHER COLD FRONT.



.AMA...

TX...NONE.

OK...NONE.



JH








116

FXUS64 KAMA 022109

AFDAMA



TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

408 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



ASIDE FROM THE FRONT BEING JUST A LITTLE BIT SLOWER AND TEMPS A

LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY FCSTD...EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE ON

TARGET. ETA HAS DONE THE WITH FCSTNG MOVEMENT OF FRONT WHILE THE AVN

CONTINUES TO DO THE BEST WITH MID/UPR LVL FEATURES. THEREFORE...ONLY

MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN APPLIED TO ONGOING FCST.



COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN OK/ERN TX

PNHDL/SOUTH PLAINS RGN...ORIENTED FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO SE OF CLAUDE

TO NEAR TULIA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO PARALLEL FRONT ABOUT

50 MILES SE OF FRONT WITH INITIAL CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR

DRYLINE/TROUGH TRIPLE-POINT IN SERN HALL COUNTY AT THIS TIME.



CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN 1/2 OF CWA TONIGHT

WITH LULL IN THE ACTION TOMORROW BEFORE BETTER CHANCES OF

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HVY RA FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS

IS PRIMARILY DUE TO NRN MEX MINOR WAVE LIFTING NE OVER W TX

TONIGHT...THEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AND UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE

OVERSPREADING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THU NIGHT.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS WARM FRONT FRI MORNG WITH DRYLINE

DEVELOPING NWD ACRS THE WRN PNHDLS DURING THE DAY. CONTINUE WITH THE

IDEA OF DRYLINE LIGHTING UP AS IT ADVANCES EAST IN RESPONSE TO SWRN

U.S. UPR LOW LIFTING NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/PLAINS. MAINTAINED

SAT PRECIP...HOWEVER DRIER BL AIR WILL OBVIOUSLY ADVECT INTO THE RGN

FROM THE WEST FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE DRYLINE.



LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS SOLNS CONTINUE

TO DIFFER BY DAY 5. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE WX FCST FOR

SUN AND MON FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY COOLER WX TUE AND WED IN WAKE OF

ANOTHER COLD FRONT.



.AMA...

TX...NONE.

OK...NONE.



JH