826

FXUS64 KAMA 032107

AFDAMA



TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

405 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



UPR LVL LOW ROTATING OVER SRN UT THIS AFTN WITH LITTLE MVMT EXPECTD

DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HRS. DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING UNDERWAY

OVER THE SRN PLAINS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF

BEAVER SWWD TO NEAR CLAUDE TO SOUTH OF MULESHOE. WITH RIGHT-MVG

SUPERCELL TRACKING EAST JUST S OF CWA. DRYLINE FAR SW OF TX PNHDL IN

XTRM SERN NM AND FAR W TX.



NOW THAT AVN HAS CAUGHT UP WITH ETA WRT TO LOW LVL FEATURES...HAVE

BASED MUCH OF THIS FCST PACKAGE ON AVN. ETA CONTINUES TO BE TOO

PROGRESSIVE WITH MVT OF GREAT BASIN UPR LOW WHILE NGM IS TOO FAR

NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ON TAP FOR

TONIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR ADV PATTERN AND UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE

STRENGTHENS. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A

WARM FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...LOCALLY HVY RAIN A

REAL POSSIBILITY DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND

NEAR WARM FRONT.



MORE ACTIVE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTN AND FRI NIGHT AS UPR LVL

LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MAIN ENERGY

ROTATES NE ACROSS THE PNHDLS. CONVECTION LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG

THE DRYLINE LATE FRI AFTN ACROSS ERN NM. STORMS EXPECTED MOVE EAST

AND EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE. DESPITE LOW LVL DRY AIR ADVECTING

ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...DECIDED TO RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS STEEP

LAPSE RATES AND WRAP AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

VIRGA TYPE CONVECTION.



WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN FOR SUN AND

MON DUE TO WEAK IMPULSE MOVG SE IN NWRLY FLOW AND INTERACTING WITH

NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FOR WED AND THU.



.AMA...

TX...NONE.

OK...NONE.



JH








826

FXUS64 KAMA 032107

AFDAMA



TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

405 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



UPR LVL LOW ROTATING OVER SRN UT THIS AFTN WITH LITTLE MVMT EXPECTD

DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HRS. DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING UNDERWAY

OVER THE SRN PLAINS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF

BEAVER SWWD TO NEAR CLAUDE TO SOUTH OF MULESHOE. WITH RIGHT-MVG

SUPERCELL TRACKING EAST JUST S OF CWA. DRYLINE FAR SW OF TX PNHDL IN

XTRM SERN NM AND FAR W TX.



NOW THAT AVN HAS CAUGHT UP WITH ETA WRT TO LOW LVL FEATURES...HAVE

BASED MUCH OF THIS FCST PACKAGE ON AVN. ETA CONTINUES TO BE TOO

PROGRESSIVE WITH MVT OF GREAT BASIN UPR LOW WHILE NGM IS TOO FAR

NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ON TAP FOR

TONIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR ADV PATTERN AND UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE

STRENGTHENS. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A

WARM FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT...LOCALLY HVY RAIN A

REAL POSSIBILITY DUE TO TRAINING OF CELLS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND

NEAR WARM FRONT.



MORE ACTIVE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AFTN AND FRI NIGHT AS UPR LVL

LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MAIN ENERGY

ROTATES NE ACROSS THE PNHDLS. CONVECTION LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG

THE DRYLINE LATE FRI AFTN ACROSS ERN NM. STORMS EXPECTED MOVE EAST

AND EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE. DESPITE LOW LVL DRY AIR ADVECTING

ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...DECIDED TO RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS AS STEEP

LAPSE RATES AND WRAP AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

VIRGA TYPE CONVECTION.



WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN FOR SUN AND

MON DUE TO WEAK IMPULSE MOVG SE IN NWRLY FLOW AND INTERACTING WITH

NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FOR WED AND THU.



.AMA...

TX...NONE.

OK...NONE.



JH