186 FXUS64 KAMA 040906 AFDAMA TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 LIGHTNING MAP DEPICTS LOCATION OF WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUOUS TSRA TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT IS NOW VERY MOIST WITH BL MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 11-12 G/KG. VERY HIGH PW/S...OVER ONE INCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...LOCATION OF WARM FROM WILL BE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. AGREE WITH NCEP FRONT LOCATION BY 00Z SATURDAY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH BACKING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE 25-35 KT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED PRECIP EVENT. FURTHER...45 KT 5H SPEED MAX WILL INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z SATURDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 3H LEFT EXIT REGION WILL ALSO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION WITH ENHANCE LIFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN TODAY...HOWEVER WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE VALUES NOW IN PLACE FEEL PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FFA FOR SOUTHEAST SIX COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM MIAMI AND CANADIAN SOUTHWARD TO CLARENDON AND WELLINGTON. ALSO FEEL HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN LATER TODAY. CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO WATCH EASTERN ZONES FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. THANKS FOR COORD WFOS LUBBOCK AND NORMAN. .AMA... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...TXZ009-010-014-015-019-020. OK...NONE. SLATTERY  186 FXUS64 KAMA 040906 AFDAMA TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 LIGHTNING MAP DEPICTS LOCATION OF WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUOUS TSRA TRAINING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT IS NOW VERY MOIST WITH BL MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 11-12 G/KG. VERY HIGH PW/S...OVER ONE INCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...LOCATION OF WARM FROM WILL BE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY. AGREE WITH NCEP FRONT LOCATION BY 00Z SATURDAY MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH BACKING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY INTO THE 25-35 KT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED PRECIP EVENT. FURTHER...45 KT 5H SPEED MAX WILL INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z SATURDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 3H LEFT EXIT REGION WILL ALSO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION WITH ENHANCE LIFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN TODAY...HOWEVER WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE VALUES NOW IN PLACE FEEL PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FFA FOR SOUTHEAST SIX COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM MIAMI AND CANADIAN SOUTHWARD TO CLARENDON AND WELLINGTON. ALSO FEEL HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN LATER TODAY. CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO WATCH EASTERN ZONES FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. THANKS FOR COORD WFOS LUBBOCK AND NORMAN. .AMA... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...TXZ009-010-014-015-019-020. OK...NONE. SLATTERY