903

FXUS63 KDDC 020811

AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

312 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



SFC ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAS FRONT THROUGH GLD TO ABOUT LAA. 

EXTRAPOLATION SHOULD PUT FRONT THROUGH GCK AROUND 1130Z.  FRONT 

REALLY PLUNGING IN EASTERN COLORADO WHILE EASTERN PORTING MUCH 

SLOWER. ANALYSIS HAS BEST PRESSURE RISES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.  EARLY 

CHALLENGE WILL BE FRONTAL TIMING.  THUS...TEMPS.



ETA MUCH COLDER AND A BIT FASTER WITH FRONT.  BASED ON UPSTREAM 

TEMPS...ETA LOOKS TOO COLD BUT FRONTAL LOCATION SEEMS BETTER THAN 

NGM/AVN.  FOR TODAY...WILL MENTION WINDY WITH WIND SHIFT.  THINK NGM 

MOS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS AS FRONT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NGM 

TIMING. PRETTY GOOD CAA SHOULD ENSUE BEHIND FRONT AND WILL GO WITH 

EARLY HIGH THEN STEADY TEMPS.  FRONT MAY NOT REACH P28 TILL AROUND 

18Z SO WILL GO FOR 75 TO 80 AND STEADY PM TEMPS. GOING FOR MAINLY 

MID 60S FOR REST OF AREA. 700-500 LAPS RATE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER 

CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA BY AFTERNOON.  MODELS BRING VORT INTO WEST 

LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL PROBABLY GO WITH 30-40 POPS FOR EASTERN 

HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION SEVERE.  MAY GO WITH SMALL POPS 

FOR NORTH AND WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  



TONIGHT...FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL FROM TX PANHANDLE TO P28 OR MOVE 

BACK NORTH SOME AS UPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER GREAT BASIN.  WILL GO WITH 

LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHEAST TO HYS AND KEEP SEVERE WORDING FOR 

SOUTHEAST.  MODELS ADVERTISING SEVERAL S/W TROFS MOVING THROUGH WITH 

JET AXIS JUST NORTHWEST OF AREA. SO...SHOULD HAVE PRETTY GOOD LIFT 

OVER FRONT AND  WILL GO FOR 40 POPS WEST TO 50 CENTRAL. DEWPOINTS 

FALL TO MID OR UPPER 40S TONIGHT WITH MID OR UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST  

THAT...COMBINED WITH CAA...THINK TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO AROUND THE 

DEWPOINT TONIGHT NORTH OF FRONT.  THIS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH 

GOING FORECAST SO WILL NOT ADJUST. 



THURSDAY...ANOTHER S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS AREA. FRONT SHOULD PRETTY 

MUCH STAY OVER SOUTHEAST CWA. THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSRA AND WILL 

GO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR P28 GROUP WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN 

POSSIBLE AND WILL GO FOR LIKELY FOR HYS AND 40-50 POPS ELSEWHERE.  

SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD SPREAD OF TEMPS ACROSS CWA.  WILL GO UPPER 

60S FOR P28 WITH MID OR UPPER 50S FOR REST.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...



00Z AVN STILL SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND STILL INDICATE A WET 

PERIOD IN STORE FOR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT 

EXTENDED HAS GOOD HANDLE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO NO CHANGES TO THE 

EXTENDED PLANNED THIS MORNING.



PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE

CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.



DDC 066/047 058/048 066 165

GCK 066/045 055/047 066 155

EHA 068/045 059/045 066 144

LBL 070/045 060/046 068 155

HYS 063/048 056/047 069 366

P28 076/057 066/056 072 468



.DDC...NONE.