564 FXUS63 KDDC 022012 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 313 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND TEMPS. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NEAR P28, WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND LOOPING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM P28 INTO THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEBRASKA, WHERE IT BECAME A STATIONARY FRONT CLEAR UP THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. DO THINK THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUS AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP LATER TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM, WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT? HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE NPW PAST ZONE ISSUANCE TIME, AND LET NEXT SHIFT DROP, OR UPDATE, THE NPW. THINK THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 26 KTS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE TOWARD SUNSET OR JUST BEFORE. WITH THE FRONT NOT SCHEDULED TO WANDER TOO FAR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 8- 12 HOURS, AND LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DARK, COUPLED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES HEADING OUR WAY, WILL GO WITH 80 POPS SE AND E, AND 60 POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ADVERTISING 5H LOW TO CUT OFF AROUND 3/06Z NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS AND ROTATES, PERIODIC AND FREQUENT EJECTED SHORT WAVES SHOULD HIT PARTS OF CWA ABOUT EVERY 12 TO 18 HOURS, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST PARTS. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS OF THURS, THURS NT, AND FRI. IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, 70 AND 80 POPS MORE WARRANTED, WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP JUICY DEW POINTS PUMPING INTO THERE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE FRONT, BUT WILL STAY CLOSE TO FWC TRENDS, BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CONTINUE UNTIL IT DOES. MAIN PLAYER FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIODS REMAINS TO BE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. LATEST AVN AND MRF ARE TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAY'S EXTENSION OF THE AVN WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BE PHASING THIS SECOND WAVE WITH THE CURRENT ONE AND AM NOT SURE THIS WILL TRANSPIRE. MODEL SKILL SCORES TAKING A DIVE OVER LAST FEW DAYS AND WITH UNCERTAINTY QUITE LARGE BY EARLY WEEK, WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 051/063 054/065 051 667 GCK 050/063 053/065 048 667 EHA 049/062 049/064 049 466 LBL 052/064 054/065 050 667 HYS 051/059 050/062 050 787 P28 060/074 058/069 057 887 .DDC...NPW WIND ADVISORY TIL 03/00Z WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE LINE. KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087. BURKE/POAGE  564 FXUS63 KDDC 022012 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 313 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND TEMPS. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NEAR P28, WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND LOOPING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM P28 INTO THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEBRASKA, WHERE IT BECAME A STATIONARY FRONT CLEAR UP THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. DO THINK THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUS AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP LATER TONIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM, WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT? HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE NPW PAST ZONE ISSUANCE TIME, AND LET NEXT SHIFT DROP, OR UPDATE, THE NPW. THINK THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 26 KTS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE TOWARD SUNSET OR JUST BEFORE. WITH THE FRONT NOT SCHEDULED TO WANDER TOO FAR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 8- 12 HOURS, AND LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DARK, COUPLED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES HEADING OUR WAY, WILL GO WITH 80 POPS SE AND E, AND 60 POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ADVERTISING 5H LOW TO CUT OFF AROUND 3/06Z NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS AND ROTATES, PERIODIC AND FREQUENT EJECTED SHORT WAVES SHOULD HIT PARTS OF CWA ABOUT EVERY 12 TO 18 HOURS, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST PARTS. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS OF THURS, THURS NT, AND FRI. IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, 70 AND 80 POPS MORE WARRANTED, WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP JUICY DEW POINTS PUMPING INTO THERE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE FRONT, BUT WILL STAY CLOSE TO FWC TRENDS, BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CONTINUE UNTIL IT DOES. MAIN PLAYER FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIODS REMAINS TO BE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. LATEST AVN AND MRF ARE TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAY'S EXTENSION OF THE AVN WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BE PHASING THIS SECOND WAVE WITH THE CURRENT ONE AND AM NOT SURE THIS WILL TRANSPIRE. MODEL SKILL SCORES TAKING A DIVE OVER LAST FEW DAYS AND WITH UNCERTAINTY QUITE LARGE BY EARLY WEEK, WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 051/063 054/065 051 667 GCK 050/063 053/065 048 667 EHA 049/062 049/064 049 466 LBL 052/064 054/065 050 667 HYS 051/059 050/062 050 787 P28 060/074 058/069 057 887 .DDC...NPW WIND ADVISORY TIL 03/00Z WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE LINE. KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087. BURKE/POAGE