131

FXUS63 KDDC 032033

AFDDDC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

333 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WAS DECIDING WHEN PRECIP

CHANCES MAY DECREASE.  WITH UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER THE 4-CORNERS

AREA AND 250MB JET SHOWING 90KTS+ CURVING DOWN WEST SIDE OF LOW, THE

EJECTING WAVES AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

AT LEAST 36 HOURS.  PLAN TO GO CATEGORICAL IN ALL ZONES, EXCEPT

SOUTHEAST WHERE 70 POPS SHOULD HOLD IT.  DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION

OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY OR TOMORROW, BUT THINK THERE WILL BE

AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD THIS

MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO NEARLY ALL ZONES.



TEMPS WILL BE THE SECOND HARD DECISION.  RAIN MAY PROVIDE

EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS

TONIGHT THAN GUIDANCE PROVIDES.  WILL GO NEAR COOLER FWC NUMBERS

FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.



THIS MORNING/S MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED THE ETA AND NGM SLIGHTLY

BETTER THAN AVN, BUT NOT THAT MUCH OVERALL DIFFERENCE.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...



INITIAL PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE POPS WITH

THE THE FOUR CORNERS LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEETING UP WITH

A WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.  COLD FRONT WILL PUSH

BACK THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH PACIFIC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING

IN.  AM NOT SURE JUST HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH

PLAINS HOWEVER AND WILL THUS KEEP MONDAY'S POPS GOING FOR NOW.



JUST HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AFTER THIS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH IN

QUESTION AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.  DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION SHOWS

THE MODEL SKILL SCORES TAKING A PLUNGE AND OUTGOING LONGWAVE

RADIATION INDICES POINT TO THE BEGINNING OF A MOIST PHASE OF THE

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION.  ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER DAY 5 ARE ALL

OVER THE ROAD. USING THE DIAGNOSTICS AND THE TREND OF THE

CIRCULATION STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE, FEELINGS ARE THAT THE POLAR

VORTEX WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN ASIA AND THE

WESTERLIES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC.  AS THE THE MJO KICKS IN,

EXPECT TO SEE RIDGING DEVELOP OVER ROUGHLY 150W WITH WESTERN CONUS

TROFFING BY LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL KEEP MID WEEK

PERIODS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER A SLIGHTLY

COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE WEEK.  WILL THEN TREND THE LOCAL 8 TO

10 DAY OUTLOOK TO A WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION.



PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE

CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.



DDC 050/064 050/068 051 897

GCK 047/065 048/069 049 897

EHA 047/065 048/069 049 897

LBL 048/064 050/069 051 897

HYS 050/064 049/068 050 897

P28 055/068 054/072 056 797



.DDC...NONE.



BURKE/POAGE/AF








131

FXUS63 KDDC 032033

AFDDDC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

333 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WAS DECIDING WHEN PRECIP

CHANCES MAY DECREASE.  WITH UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER THE 4-CORNERS

AREA AND 250MB JET SHOWING 90KTS+ CURVING DOWN WEST SIDE OF LOW, THE

EJECTING WAVES AND RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

AT LEAST 36 HOURS.  PLAN TO GO CATEGORICAL IN ALL ZONES, EXCEPT

SOUTHEAST WHERE 70 POPS SHOULD HOLD IT.  DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION

OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY OR TOMORROW, BUT THINK THERE WILL BE

AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ADD THIS

MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO NEARLY ALL ZONES.



TEMPS WILL BE THE SECOND HARD DECISION.  RAIN MAY PROVIDE

EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS

TONIGHT THAN GUIDANCE PROVIDES.  WILL GO NEAR COOLER FWC NUMBERS

FOR REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.



THIS MORNING/S MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED THE ETA AND NGM SLIGHTLY

BETTER THAN AVN, BUT NOT THAT MUCH OVERALL DIFFERENCE.



EXTENDED DISCUSSION...



INITIAL PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE POPS WITH

THE THE FOUR CORNERS LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND MEETING UP WITH

A WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.  COLD FRONT WILL PUSH

BACK THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH PACIFIC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING

IN.  AM NOT SURE JUST HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH

PLAINS HOWEVER AND WILL THUS KEEP MONDAY'S POPS GOING FOR NOW.



JUST HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE AFTER THIS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH IN

QUESTION AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.  DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION SHOWS

THE MODEL SKILL SCORES TAKING A PLUNGE AND OUTGOING LONGWAVE

RADIATION INDICES POINT TO THE BEGINNING OF A MOIST PHASE OF THE

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION.  ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER DAY 5 ARE ALL

OVER THE ROAD. USING THE DIAGNOSTICS AND THE TREND OF THE

CIRCULATION STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE, FEELINGS ARE THAT THE POLAR

VORTEX WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN ASIA AND THE

WESTERLIES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC.  AS THE THE MJO KICKS IN,

EXPECT TO SEE RIDGING DEVELOP OVER ROUGHLY 150W WITH WESTERN CONUS

TROFFING BY LATE WEEK.  WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL KEEP MID WEEK

PERIODS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAY 7 AFTER A SLIGHTLY

COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE WEEK.  WILL THEN TREND THE LOCAL 8 TO

10 DAY OUTLOOK TO A WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION.



PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE

CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.



DDC 050/064 050/068 051 897

GCK 047/065 048/069 049 897

EHA 047/065 048/069 049 897

LBL 048/064 050/069 051 897

HYS 050/064 049/068 050 897

P28 055/068 054/072 056 797



.DDC...NONE.



BURKE/POAGE/AF