138 FXUS63 KDDC 040802 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 302 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...THAT OF INDICATING THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY COMING ON SHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...CAN ACT AS A KICKER TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. NGM/AVN WANT TO RACE BOTH THE SFC AND 8H FRONTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ETA...IS THE SLOWEST IN THE RETURN THE FRONT AND BELIEVE ITS SOLUTION IS THE ONE WHICH WILL PAN OUT. BELIEVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OCCURRING ATTM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL RESULT IN REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THUS FAVOR A SLOWER RETREAT NORTHWEST AS THE ETA SUGGESTS. STRENGTHENING OF THE WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY FOR ALL AREAS THANKS TO GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND ALSO THE ADDED FEATURE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TODAY. ALSO SEVERAL BLOBS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPIRALING OFF THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING WITH THE STRONGEST PROGGED FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT AND POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT GIVEN MY EARLIER DISCUSSION...WILL FAVOR THE ETA/S SOLUTION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF THE NGM/AVN SOLUTIONS OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS THE MAIN FOCUS AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ATTM GIVEN UNCERTAINLY OF JUST WHERE THE ACTUAL HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE AND ALSO GIVEN THAT THE VALUES PREDICTED ARE STILL WELL BELOW THE 6HR FFG VALUES OF AROUND 3.0 IN/6HRS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF /HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE/ AND LEAVE OUT ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT VORTMAX PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN ITS VICINITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED. UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BE DRAWING CLOSER...AND AS SUCH ADVECTING COOLER AIR IN ALOFT WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. BY SATURDAY...THE TYPICAL NGM BIAS OF BRINGING THE UPPER LOW OUT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD. WILL SELECT TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ETA SOLUTION. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THUS WILL TREND POPS LEAST SOUTHWEST TO GREATEST NORTHEAST. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE FWC NUMBERS. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 062/055 068/049 078 +94 GCK 060/054 066/048 079 +94 EHA 055/053 068/046 082 +74 LBL 057/053 068/047 080 +74 HYS 063/058 064/052 075 ++7 P28 068/060 068/058 077 9+6 .DDC...NONE. SLEIGHTER/JOHNSON  138 FXUS63 KDDC 040802 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 302 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...THAT OF INDICATING THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY COMING ON SHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...CAN ACT AS A KICKER TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY. NGM/AVN WANT TO RACE BOTH THE SFC AND 8H FRONTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ETA...IS THE SLOWEST IN THE RETURN THE FRONT AND BELIEVE ITS SOLUTION IS THE ONE WHICH WILL PAN OUT. BELIEVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OCCURRING ATTM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL RESULT IN REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT AND THUS FAVOR A SLOWER RETREAT NORTHWEST AS THE ETA SUGGESTS. STRENGTHENING OF THE WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY FOR ALL AREAS THANKS TO GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND ALSO THE ADDED FEATURE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TODAY. ALSO SEVERAL BLOBS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPIRALING OFF THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING WITH THE STRONGEST PROGGED FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT AND POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL VARIES A BIT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT GIVEN MY EARLIER DISCUSSION...WILL FAVOR THE ETA/S SOLUTION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF THE NGM/AVN SOLUTIONS OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS THE MAIN FOCUS AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ATTM GIVEN UNCERTAINLY OF JUST WHERE THE ACTUAL HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE AND ALSO GIVEN THAT THE VALUES PREDICTED ARE STILL WELL BELOW THE 6HR FFG VALUES OF AROUND 3.0 IN/6HRS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF /HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE/ AND LEAVE OUT ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT VORTMAX PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN ITS VICINITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED. UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BE DRAWING CLOSER...AND AS SUCH ADVECTING COOLER AIR IN ALOFT WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. BY SATURDAY...THE TYPICAL NGM BIAS OF BRINGING THE UPPER LOW OUT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH IS REARING ITS UGLY HEAD. WILL SELECT TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ETA SOLUTION. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THUS WILL TREND POPS LEAST SOUTHWEST TO GREATEST NORTHEAST. WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE FWC NUMBERS. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 062/055 068/049 078 +94 GCK 060/054 066/048 079 +94 EHA 055/053 068/046 082 +74 LBL 057/053 068/047 080 +74 HYS 063/058 064/052 075 ++7 P28 068/060 068/058 077 9+6 .DDC...NONE. SLEIGHTER/JOHNSON