771

FXUS64 KFWD 021013

AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

513 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL BREAK BY MID DAY...BECOMING SCT VFR

CLOUDS. CYCLE TO REPEAT...WITH CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT.  STRONG SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE AFTER CLOUDS BREAK AND

MIXING OCCURS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.          42



330 AM CDT PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TO NORTH

TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE

BREAKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE STRONG THOUGH THE

DAY...AND WILL MENTION CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY. AFTER THIS...THE

FORECAST GETS A BIT TRICKY. MAIN PROBLEM THROUGH THE FORECAST

PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.



THE MAIN FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE

FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...TO SOUTHERN

COLORADO...AND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE THE UPPER WEST COAST

TROUGH...AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE MODELS DONT NECESSARILY AGREE

WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AVN AND

NGM BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO THE TEXAS

PANHANDLE...WHILE THE ETA BRINGS THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AND INTO

NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AGREE WITH WASHINGTON THAT THE ETA

SOLUTION IS MOST LIKELY BEST...GIVEN THE MODELS TENDENCY TO BE

BETTER IN THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF COLD AIR...DESPITE THE

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  EVEN IF THE ETA IS TOO FAR SOUTH...FEEL

THAT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES

THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT AND DRYLINE WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FIRE

A FEW STORMS OUT WEST. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AT LEAST...WILL

KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF

THESE BOUNDARIES.



SEVERAL IMPULSES FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...AND SUBTROPICAL JET...WILL

MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THAT WILL GIVE

AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT

ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...AS THEY HAVE BEEN ON

TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND LOOK REASONABLE TODAY. DO BELIEVE

THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF A BIT FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS.



PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

DFW  84/68 82/65 0123

ACT  85/66 83/66 0143



.FWD...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.