681 FXUS64 KFWD 022039 AFDFTW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 338 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS CYCLE WILL LIKELY RIDE ON EITHER THE EROSION OR ABILITY OF THE MID LEVEL CAP TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. STORMS FIRING IN STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE REGION AND RIDE ALONG THE MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. PATTERN ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT BY FRIDAY AS A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. H850-700 MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED BY MODELS TO COOL SOMEWHAT BY SHORTWAVE INFLUENCES OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FINALLY LIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF CAP WEAKENS...THEN TRAILING END OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST...IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CAUTIOUS APPROACH AND CONFINE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL OFFSET THICKENING PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN OVER THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A TREND TOWARD ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IF IT CAN PUNCH SOUTH AS ADVERTIZED. WILL CONTINUE WITH CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING...AND WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY. DFW 69/84/68/83 0012 ACT 69/85/68/84 0012 .FWD...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING. ..48..  681 FXUS64 KFWD 022039 AFDFTW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 338 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS CYCLE WILL LIKELY RIDE ON EITHER THE EROSION OR ABILITY OF THE MID LEVEL CAP TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. STORMS FIRING IN STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE REGION AND RIDE ALONG THE MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES. PATTERN ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT BY FRIDAY AS A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. H850-700 MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED BY MODELS TO COOL SOMEWHAT BY SHORTWAVE INFLUENCES OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FINALLY LIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IF CAP WEAKENS...THEN TRAILING END OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST...IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CAUTIOUS APPROACH AND CONFINE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL OFFSET THICKENING PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN OVER THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A TREND TOWARD ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IF IT CAN PUNCH SOUTH AS ADVERTIZED. WILL CONTINUE WITH CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING...AND WINDY AGAIN THURSDAY. DFW 69/84/68/83 0012 ACT 69/85/68/84 0012 .FWD...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING. ..48..