099

FXUS64 KFWD 031009

AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

505 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE...AGAIN...THROUGH AROUND 17Z BEFORE BECOMING

VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY...AND EVEN

SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST

OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE DFW AREA...AND

CHANCES APPEAR SLIGHT...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 KTS AGAIN TODAY. 42





305 AM CDT PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PROBLEM WAS THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...AND

WHEN WOULD THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. NO CHANGE IN THE PROBLEM...

AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA

SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...DESPITE THE AVN SHOWING MORE RUN

TO RUN CONSISTENCY. HAVE DONE THIS FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. ONE...

HISTORICALLY THE ETA HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH THE POSITION OF

"COLD" AIR...AND TWO...AGREE WITH NCEP DISCUSSION THAT THE ETA HAS

DONE A BETTER JOB AT VERIFYING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE

PANHANDLE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. HAVE NOT BOUGHT ALL THE DETAILS OF

THE ETA HOWEVER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ETA HAS CONTINUED ITS

TENDENCY THIS SPRING OF BREAKING DOWN THE CAP TOO QUICKLY. THE

ETA SHOWS 700MB TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY

FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW

THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT TO THIS EXTENT.



TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS NOT DONE A BAD JOB OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...

AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL WAIT

UNTIL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR

RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER

THEN...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.



PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

DFW 83/66 80/64 0034

ACT 84/67 81/65 0023



.FWD...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.



84








099

FXUS64 KFWD 031009

AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

505 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE...AGAIN...THROUGH AROUND 17Z BEFORE BECOMING

VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS TODAY...AND EVEN

SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST

OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE DFW AREA...AND

CHANCES APPEAR SLIGHT...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 KTS AGAIN TODAY. 42





305 AM CDT PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

LAST NIGHTS FORECAST PROBLEM WAS THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...AND

WHEN WOULD THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. NO CHANGE IN THE PROBLEM...

AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA

SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...DESPITE THE AVN SHOWING MORE RUN

TO RUN CONSISTENCY. HAVE DONE THIS FOR TWO MAIN REASONS. ONE...

HISTORICALLY THE ETA HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD WITH THE POSITION OF

"COLD" AIR...AND TWO...AGREE WITH NCEP DISCUSSION THAT THE ETA HAS

DONE A BETTER JOB AT VERIFYING THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE

PANHANDLE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. HAVE NOT BOUGHT ALL THE DETAILS OF

THE ETA HOWEVER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ETA HAS CONTINUED ITS

TENDENCY THIS SPRING OF BREAKING DOWN THE CAP TOO QUICKLY. THE

ETA SHOWS 700MB TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY

FRIDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW

THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT TO THIS EXTENT.



TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS NOT DONE A BAD JOB OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...

AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL WAIT

UNTIL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN...THE BEST CHANCES FOR

RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER

THEN...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT

CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.



PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

DFW 83/66 80/64 0034

ACT 84/67 81/65 0023



.FWD...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.



84