391

FXUS64 KFWD 031951

AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

251 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL SPIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY

THEN OPEN AND LIFT OUT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON

SATURDAY.  SUB-TROPICAL JET POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED...NOTE A VERY STRONG ONE APPROACHING

CENTRAL BAJA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PATH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.  THE AVN

HOLDS THIS ENERGY BACK OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE THE ETA AND NGM MOVE IT

ACROSS THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE

EASTERN HALF...BUT CAP SHOULD ERODE ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT

DECREASE...AIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. DIV-Q FIELDS NOT SUPER

IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE COUPLED OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.  PW/S AROUND 1.50 INCHES...MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND TRAINING

EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF FRIDAY

AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE

ISOLATED 2-3 INCHES TOTALS.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...

DYNAMICS AND VERTICAL PROFILES WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY. AFTERWARDS...POTENTIAL WILL

INCREASE AS DRYLINE NEARS AND UPPER JET BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH IT.



ERGO...WILL RIDE WITH MODERATE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DIMINISHING

TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO 10-15 DEGREES NEXT TOW DAYS.  WINDY

AGAIN FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS.  AFTER A DRY

APRIL...NORTH TEXAS WOULD BENEFIT FROM A GOOD RAIN EVENT.







DFW  69/77/65/76 2764

ACT  68/78/66/78 2554



.FWD...NONE.



75








391

FXUS64 KFWD 031951

AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

251 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN U.S. WILL SPIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY

THEN OPEN AND LIFT OUT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON

SATURDAY.  SUB-TROPICAL JET POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED...NOTE A VERY STRONG ONE APPROACHING

CENTRAL BAJA.  MODELS DIFFER ON PATH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY.  THE AVN

HOLDS THIS ENERGY BACK OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE THE ETA AND NGM MOVE IT

ACROSS THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE

EASTERN HALF...BUT CAP SHOULD ERODE ON FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT

DECREASE...AIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. DIV-Q FIELDS NOT SUPER

IMPRESSIVE...BUT ARE COUPLED OVER THE CWA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.  PW/S AROUND 1.50 INCHES...MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND TRAINING

EFFECTS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF FRIDAY

AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE

ISOLATED 2-3 INCHES TOTALS.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...

DYNAMICS AND VERTICAL PROFILES WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY. AFTERWARDS...POTENTIAL WILL

INCREASE AS DRYLINE NEARS AND UPPER JET BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH IT.



ERGO...WILL RIDE WITH MODERATE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DIMINISHING

TO SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIMIT

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO 10-15 DEGREES NEXT TOW DAYS.  WINDY

AGAIN FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS.  AFTER A DRY

APRIL...NORTH TEXAS WOULD BENEFIT FROM A GOOD RAIN EVENT.







DFW  69/77/65/76 2764

ACT  68/78/66/78 2554



.FWD...NONE.



75