771 FXUS64 KFWD 041002 AMD AFDFTW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 500 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 AVIATION DISCUSSION... MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. LOOK FOR EXTENDED MVFR CIGS TODAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH FIRST OF SEVERAL IMPULSES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. EXPECT GOOD RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE. 42 245 AM CDT PUBLIC DISCUSSION... INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A GOOD SHOT AT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER NORTH TEXAS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A FEW AREAS WILL GET TOO MUCH AT ONE TIME. FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THEN SNAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING. AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING FOR LIFT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A MAIN FACTOR IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE IMPULSES COMING OUT OF BAJA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THESE IMPULSES MOVING FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ETA/AVN/NGM SHOW. THE ENERGY COMING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTH TEXAS...SO POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS. RAW GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA MODEL WOULD SUGGEST OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY OVERDONE. LIKE THE STORMS IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING...ANY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE FIRST PERIOD IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 70 NOW... AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COOLING UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS...WHICH SHOULD BE EARLY TO MID MORNING IN THE NORTH. REST OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. DFW 75/63 73/63 7754 ACT 78/65 76/64 8753 .FWD...NONE. 84  771 FXUS64 KFWD 041002 AMD AFDFTW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 500 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 AVIATION DISCUSSION... MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHES. LOOK FOR EXTENDED MVFR CIGS TODAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH FIRST OF SEVERAL IMPULSES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. EXPECT GOOD RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE. 42 245 AM CDT PUBLIC DISCUSSION... INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A GOOD SHOT AT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER NORTH TEXAS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT A FEW AREAS WILL GET TOO MUCH AT ONE TIME. FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THEN SNAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING. AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES EAST...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER NORTH TEXAS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING FOR LIFT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS A MAIN FACTOR IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE IMPULSES COMING OUT OF BAJA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THESE IMPULSES MOVING FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN ETA/AVN/NGM SHOW. THE ENERGY COMING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTH TEXAS...SO POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS. RAW GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA MODEL WOULD SUGGEST OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY OVERDONE. LIKE THE STORMS IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING...ANY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE FIRST PERIOD IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 70 NOW... AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COOLING UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS...WHICH SHOULD BE EARLY TO MID MORNING IN THE NORTH. REST OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. DFW 75/63 73/63 7754 ACT 78/65 76/64 8753 .FWD...NONE. 84