947

FXUS63 KICT 020736

AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

235 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



FCST FOCUS ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND POSITION ALONG WITH TEMPS AND 

PRECIP CHCS NEXT FEW DAYS.



WILL CONTINUE THE USE OF AN ETA/AVN BLEND WITH A NOD TOWARD THE ETA 

FOR SFC BOUNDARY POSITION.



LATEST SATELLITE/UPPER AIR AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE 

DOMINANT PROCESS ONGOING AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF WAA IN THE MID 

LEVELS WHICH IS ACTING TO CAP THE AREA.  LLJ IMPINGING ON THE 

BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ACT TO PRODUCE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW 

KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THOSE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP TOWARD 

CENTRAL KS COME SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...850MB SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL 

MOISTURE AXIS NOW IN PLACE FROM THE BIG BEND OF TX THROUGH EASTERN 

NEB.  WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DIGGING SYSTEM ACROSS THE 

GREAT BASIN.



FOR TODAY...TEMPS AND SKY CONDS UP FOR GRABS DEPENDING ON FRONTAL 

SPEED AND POSITION DURING THE DAY.  LOOKING AT LATEST FEW HOURS FEEL 

THAT THE MESOETA MAY BE OKAY IN ITS DEPICTION OF THE FRONT TODAY. 

HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WARM START TO THE DAY...MAY NEED TO TWEAK UP 

MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS WITH 65 TO 70 RSL...MID 70S OR SO SLN AND LOWER 

TO MID 80S OR HIGHER FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN KS A FIRST GUESS. 

NOT SURE HOW RAPID THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SATURATE BEHIND THE FRONT 

ACROSS CENTRAL KS SO I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN EXACT WORDING OF TEMPS 

COME AFTERNOON.  AS FOR PRECIP CHCS...LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHC FOR 

ELEVATED STORMS THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH BETTER CHCS FOR 

LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  

WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 30 POP FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE WHERE CAP 

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THROUGH SUNSET.



TONIGHT...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE/DIV PATTERN WILL 

DEVELOP AS WILL AN ASSOCIATED LLJ.  THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY AND 

THIS IS COVERED WELL IN THE FCST.  NO DOUBT HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT 

BASED UPON THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION WHICH WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE 

MID LEVEL FLOW...SO AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED DAY SHIFT NEEDS TO 

MONITOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.  



THUR/THU NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF LEAVING THE LOWER LEVELS IN A 

NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH SOME MOVEMENT OF THE SFC FRONTAL POSITION 

LIKELY...HOWEVER CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH MILD CONDS TO PERSIST 

ACROSS SE KS AND THE TRANSITION TO COOLER CONDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS 

WITH CONTINUED GOOD CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL STAY NEAR THE 

GOING FCST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN TEMPS AND LIKELY POPS TO 

CONTINUE.



EXTENDED...UPPER SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SO 

CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD.  BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS 

DIVERGE SO DO NOT LOOK FOR CHANGES IN THE GOING FCST.



FCSTID = 11

ICT   86  60  73  57 /  30  60  60  50

HUT   81  58  70  56 /  30  60  60  50

EWK   84  59  72  58 /  30  60  60  50

EQA   87  61  76  58 /  30  60  50  50

WLD   87  62  76  60 /  20  60  60  50

RSL   68  50  64  50 /  30  50  50  50

GBD   71  54  66  53 /  30  50  60  50

SLN   76  52  68  52 /  30  60  60  50

MPR   79  55  69  56 /  30  60  60  50

CFV   87  65  80  63 /   0  40  40  40

CNU   86  63  81  62 /   0  40  40  40

K88   85  63  80  62 /   0  40  40  40





.ICT...NONE.