439

FXUS63 KICT 021657

AFDICT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

1150 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



SENT ZONE FCST UPDATE RECENTLY. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING SWD INTO 

CNTRL KS ATTM. BY THIS EVE (00Z)...FRONT SHOULD BE ALIGNED ROUGHLY 

FROM AN ARLINGTON TO MCPHERSON...TO MANHATTAN LINE. BUMPED UP POPS 

JUST S OF THE FRONT THIS PM AND INSERTED SVR MENTION NR AND JUST S 

OF FRONT INTO S-CNTRL KS. SFC BASED CAPES PROGGED TO 2000-3000 J/KG 

PROVIDED TEMPS REACH MID 80S S OF FRONT...WITH LWR 60S DWPTS. CNTRL 

KS WL BE AT SRN EDGE OF STRONGER SFC-6KM SHEAR VECTORS. STRONG LOW 

LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND WEAKENING CAP SHOULD ALLOW 

CONVECTION TO FIRE BY MID TO LATE PM. LOW CLOUDS ARE A NEGATIVE 

FACTOR FOR CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SUFFICIENT BREAKS ATTM TO 

WARRANT A CONCERN. OTHERWISE, ALLOWED FOR FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE 

FRONT IN WRN PART OF CNTRL KS. 



NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. WL UPDATE SPS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AM. 



CARUSO

.ICT...NONE.