665

FXUS63 KICT 021734

AFDICT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

1235 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



SURFACE FRONT IS DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO 

DIGGING WESTERN SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE 

MODELS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW 

TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES. 

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND SEVERE 

CONVECTION TONIGHT. CAP SHOULD BREAK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT IN 

NE KS AND A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST 

ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE 

BEST UPPER WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE STORM INITIATION AREA. WITH 

WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECTED HP TYPE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL 

BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THE 

0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL RESPECTABLE. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TOWARD 

3Z...TRAINING OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.



UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH 

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND A STATIONARY 

FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK 

LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES FOR 

SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE 

FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED AND DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.



CURRENT EXTENDED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS 

PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.





FINCH



.ICT...NONE.




















665

FXUS63 KICT 021734

AFDICT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

1235 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



SURFACE FRONT IS DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO 

DIGGING WESTERN SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE 

MODELS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW 

TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES. 

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND SEVERE 

CONVECTION TONIGHT. CAP SHOULD BREAK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT IN 

NE KS AND A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST 

ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE 

BEST UPPER WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE STORM INITIATION AREA. WITH 

WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECTED HP TYPE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL 

BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THE 

0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL RESPECTABLE. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TOWARD 

3Z...TRAINING OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.



UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH 

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND A STATIONARY 

FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK 

LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES FOR 

SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE 

FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED AND DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.



CURRENT EXTENDED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS 

PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.





FINCH



.ICT...NONE.