166 FXUS63 KICT 022010 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 310 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 SURFACE FRONT IS DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING WESTERN SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE MODELS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. CAP MAY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THROUGH NEAR MEDICINE LODGE...AND ALONG FRONT IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE STORM INITIATION AREA. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECTED HP TYPE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL MARGINALLY ACCEPTABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. TORNADO THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TOWARD 3Z...TRAINING OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND A STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED AND DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. CURRENT EXTENDED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. UKMET IS FURTHER WEST WITH SECOND UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z MRF. COORD: TOP FCSTID = 2/FINCH ICT 60 69 61 65 / 70 70 50 50 HUT 58 63 56 63 / 70 70 50 50 EWK 59 67 61 65 / 70 70 50 50 EQA 63 70 62 65 / 70 70 50 50 WLD 65 70 61 68 / 70 70 50 50 RSL 51 57 51 58 / 70 70 50 50 GBD 54 60 52 61 / 70 70 50 50 SLN 55 61 55 62 / 70 70 50 50 MPR 59 62 56 64 / 70 70 50 50 CFV 67 77 66 75 / 40 40 40 40 CNU 66 77 66 73 / 40 40 40 40 K88 65 75 65 72 / 40 40 40 40 .ICT... KS...NONE.  166 FXUS63 KICT 022010 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 310 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 SURFACE FRONT IS DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING WESTERN SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE MODELS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. CAP MAY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG PRE-FRONTAL THROUGH NEAR MEDICINE LODGE...AND ALONG FRONT IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE BEST UPPER WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE STORM INITIATION AREA. WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECTED HP TYPE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. DESPITE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS STILL MARGINALLY ACCEPTABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. TORNADO THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TOWARD 3Z...TRAINING OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND A STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED AND DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. CURRENT EXTENDED FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR STORMS. UKMET IS FURTHER WEST WITH SECOND UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z MRF. COORD: TOP FCSTID = 2/FINCH ICT 60 69 61 65 / 70 70 50 50 HUT 58 63 56 63 / 70 70 50 50 EWK 59 67 61 65 / 70 70 50 50 EQA 63 70 62 65 / 70 70 50 50 WLD 65 70 61 68 / 70 70 50 50 RSL 51 57 51 58 / 70 70 50 50 GBD 54 60 52 61 / 70 70 50 50 SLN 55 61 55 62 / 70 70 50 50 MPR 59 62 56 64 / 70 70 50 50 CFV 67 77 66 75 / 40 40 40 40 CNU 66 77 66 73 / 40 40 40 40 K88 65 75 65 72 / 40 40 40 40 .ICT... KS...NONE.