785 FXUS63 KICT 030752 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 255 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 850 BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TOWARD DODGE CITY...MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM HARPER COUNTY TO CHASE COUNTY WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED UPPER FLOW SEEMS TO BE IMPEDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS POINT WITH STRONGEST 850 WAA FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND WESTERN OK TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING SATELLITE VORT MAX IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RADAR WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS NOW MOVING NE ACROSS WESTERN OK TOWARD THE CWA. TODAY...EXPECT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE SFC BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. WILL SHOTGUN POPS FOR BOTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING SE WITH SLIGHT CHCS. MAX TEMPS OF 60 TO 65 FOR CENTRAL...AROUND 70 TO 75 SOUTH CENTRAL AND 75 TO 80 SE A FIRST GUESS. TONIGHT...APPEARS THAT OUR FIRST VORT MAX MAY ACT TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS WHILE IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY COULD ACT TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE TO THE WEST NEARER TO THE 850MB FRONT AND INCREASING UPPER DIV. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR CENTRAL AND GOOD CHCS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH 20-30 POPS SE. FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STEADY STATE HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW MAY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST BY LATE DAY. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN WX WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH SFC BOUNDARY IN AREA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S CENTRAL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK NW...MAY TWEAK SOUTH CENTRAL UP SOME WHILE KEEPING SE NEAR PERSISTENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET INDUCED LLJ AND EJECTING WAVES/INCREASING UPPER DIV MAY SUPPORT GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE AND ETA/AVN DO INDICATE THIS. WILL WORD LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE WHERE GOOD CHCS SHOULD SUFFICE. EXTENDED...LATEST AVN LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF...WHICH WOULD BRING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MONDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE RIDGING/DRYING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATER MONDAY INTO TUES. ALL IN ALL FEEL THAT CURRENT FCST LOOKS OKAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE. FCSTID = 11 ICT 76 60 76 60 / 50 50 50 70 HUT 72 59 75 60 / 50 50 50 70 EWK 73 59 75 60 / 50 50 50 70 EQA 77 60 77 60 / 50 50 50 70 WLD 77 60 75 61 / 50 50 50 70 RSL 60 52 64 55 / 60 60 60 70 GBD 61 52 65 55 / 60 60 60 70 SLN 65 56 68 57 / 60 60 50 70 MPR 65 57 69 59 / 60 60 50 70 CFV 79 62 79 63 / 20 30 30 50 CNU 80 62 80 62 / 20 30 30 50 K88 76 62 79 63 / 20 30 30 50 .ICT...NONE.  785 FXUS63 KICT 030752 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 255 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 850 BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TOWARD DODGE CITY...MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM HARPER COUNTY TO CHASE COUNTY WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED UPPER FLOW SEEMS TO BE IMPEDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS POINT WITH STRONGEST 850 WAA FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND WESTERN OK TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING SATELLITE VORT MAX IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RADAR WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS NOW MOVING NE ACROSS WESTERN OK TOWARD THE CWA. TODAY...EXPECT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE SFC BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT. WILL SHOTGUN POPS FOR BOTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING SE WITH SLIGHT CHCS. MAX TEMPS OF 60 TO 65 FOR CENTRAL...AROUND 70 TO 75 SOUTH CENTRAL AND 75 TO 80 SE A FIRST GUESS. TONIGHT...APPEARS THAT OUR FIRST VORT MAX MAY ACT TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS WHILE IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY COULD ACT TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE TO THE WEST NEARER TO THE 850MB FRONT AND INCREASING UPPER DIV. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR CENTRAL AND GOOD CHCS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH 20-30 POPS SE. FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STEADY STATE HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW MAY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST BY LATE DAY. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN WX WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH SFC BOUNDARY IN AREA TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S CENTRAL ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE BACK NW...MAY TWEAK SOUTH CENTRAL UP SOME WHILE KEEPING SE NEAR PERSISTENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET INDUCED LLJ AND EJECTING WAVES/INCREASING UPPER DIV MAY SUPPORT GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE AND ETA/AVN DO INDICATE THIS. WILL WORD LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE WHERE GOOD CHCS SHOULD SUFFICE. EXTENDED...LATEST AVN LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE ECMWF...WHICH WOULD BRING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MONDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE RIDGING/DRYING TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATER MONDAY INTO TUES. ALL IN ALL FEEL THAT CURRENT FCST LOOKS OKAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE. FCSTID = 11 ICT 76 60 76 60 / 50 50 50 70 HUT 72 59 75 60 / 50 50 50 70 EWK 73 59 75 60 / 50 50 50 70 EQA 77 60 77 60 / 50 50 50 70 WLD 77 60 75 61 / 50 50 50 70 RSL 60 52 64 55 / 60 60 60 70 GBD 61 52 65 55 / 60 60 60 70 SLN 65 56 68 57 / 60 60 50 70 MPR 65 57 69 59 / 60 60 50 70 CFV 79 62 79 63 / 20 30 30 50 CNU 80 62 80 62 / 20 30 30 50 K88 76 62 79 63 / 20 30 30 50 .ICT...NONE.