920

FXUS63 KICT 031821

AFDICT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

120 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED 

TO ALL THE MODELS. THIS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES 

COMPARED TO THE BALMY MODEL TEMPS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE 

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...EFFECTIVE FRONTAL 

BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NORTHWEST. THERE IS REALLY NO 

STRONG NORTHWARD THRUST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW UNTIL SATURDAY 

WHEN THE FRONT REALLY SHOULD LIFT UP INTO NEBRASKA. WE WILL LOWER 

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF 

PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WELL 

ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS(65-70). 



AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM IN 

WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG FRONT FROM ICT TO EMP THIS EVENING. 

EXTREME SOUTHEAST MAY STAY DRY. LIFT OVER THE FRONT SHOULD BRING 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. 70-80% POPS 

LOOK GOOD FOR CEN/SC KS FOR TONIGHT...WITH 30% POPS EXTREME SE.



WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT(DEEP MOISTURE)...LOW LAPSE 

RATES(HENCE WEAK CAP)...AND VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH 

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET 

FOR SC/CEN KS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION SE KS. CLOUDS/PRECIP

SHOULD KEEP A LID ON TEMPS SC/CEN.



LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC SQUALL LINE SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY EVENING ALONG

LEADING EDGE OF 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT. MODELS INDICATE A NARROW 

WEDGE OF DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS BY 

AFTERNOON. SINCE MOIST AXIS WILL BE RATHER NARROW...ANY STORMS AHEAD 

OF THE LINE SHOULDNT GET TO SEVERE WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.



LOOKS LIKE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAY PREVAIL FOR MONDAY TO 

THURSDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.



FINCH



.ICT...NONE.
































920

FXUS63 KICT 031821

AFDICT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

120 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001



SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED 

TO ALL THE MODELS. THIS RESULTED IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES 

COMPARED TO THE BALMY MODEL TEMPS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE 

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...EFFECTIVE FRONTAL 

BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NORTHWEST. THERE IS REALLY NO 

STRONG NORTHWARD THRUST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW UNTIL SATURDAY 

WHEN THE FRONT REALLY SHOULD LIFT UP INTO NEBRASKA. WE WILL LOWER 

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF 

PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WELL 

ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS(65-70). 



AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM IN 

WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG FRONT FROM ICT TO EMP THIS EVENING. 

EXTREME SOUTHEAST MAY STAY DRY. LIFT OVER THE FRONT SHOULD BRING 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. 70-80% POPS 

LOOK GOOD FOR CEN/SC KS FOR TONIGHT...WITH 30% POPS EXTREME SE.



WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT(DEEP MOISTURE)...LOW LAPSE 

RATES(HENCE WEAK CAP)...AND VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH 

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET 

FOR SC/CEN KS...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION SE KS. CLOUDS/PRECIP

SHOULD KEEP A LID ON TEMPS SC/CEN.



LOOKS LIKE CLASSIC SQUALL LINE SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY EVENING ALONG

LEADING EDGE OF 700MB THERMAL GRADIENT. MODELS INDICATE A NARROW 

WEDGE OF DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS BY 

AFTERNOON. SINCE MOIST AXIS WILL BE RATHER NARROW...ANY STORMS AHEAD 

OF THE LINE SHOULDNT GET TO SEVERE WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.



LOOKS LIKE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MAY PREVAIL FOR MONDAY TO 

THURSDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.



FINCH



.ICT...NONE.