255 FXUS63 KICT 040627 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 120 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 FCST FOCUS ON WET PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND POSITION ALSO A FOCUS. NEED TO BEGIN LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SAT. WILL USE AN ETA/AVN BLEND. LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS ALONG WITH LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE CLOSER TO STRONGEST UPPER DIV. AT THE SFC TWO BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SE KS WHILE THE DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE KS. ONGOING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE RIDGE IN AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. LOCAL HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO ONE OR TWO COUNTIES. FINALLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WHAT APPEAR TO BE TWO WAVES WITHIN CORRIDOR OF SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO/BAJA WITH LARGE UPPER MOISTURE PLUME WRAPPING NORTHWARD BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ROCKIES CUTOFF. TODAY...LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL. AS PREVIOUS FCSTR MENTIONED...UNTIL LATER TODAY EXPECT LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARIES SO EXPECT ALL OF CENTRAL KS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FRONT WHILE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL LIKELY ALSO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. NO DISCERNIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ACT AS MESOSCALE FORCING THROUGH MIDDAY SO ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG/NW OF FRONT. BY LATE DAY FIRST OF TWO SOUTHERN WAVES WILL APPROACH AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ANY DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE. CURRENT FCST HIGHS LOOK FINE. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR CENTRAL KS...LIKELY SOUTH CENTRAL...40-50 POPS SE. TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE AND UPPER JET STREAK STRUCTURE WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER ONE INCH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. FIRST GUESS AT AREA MORE AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WOULD BE CENTRAL KS NEARER TO OR NW OF ANY FRONT. AM LEANING TOWARD HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT BASED ON THE THINKING THAT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS MAY BECOME CLEARER TODAY WHILE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL WILL CARRY THE GOING FCST WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL BUT SE COUNTIES. SAT/SAT NIGHT...FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF WHILE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVE EAST. NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL APPROACH BY LATE DAY FOR WHAT COULD PROVE TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD FORM OF LINE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY WORDING AND CURRENT TEMPS GOING. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...850 MOISTURE APPEARS TO VEER OFF HOWEVER A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS SO WILL CARRY THE GOING FCST. CAA SHOULD BE DOMINANT PROCESS BY MONDAY AND FRONT WILL BE SE OF THE AREA SO GOING FCST LOOKS FINE. BEYOND MONDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED. CO .ICT...NONE.  255 FXUS63 KICT 040627 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 120 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001 FCST FOCUS ON WET PATTERN NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND POSITION ALSO A FOCUS. NEED TO BEGIN LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SAT. WILL USE AN ETA/AVN BLEND. LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS ALONG WITH LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE CLOSER TO STRONGEST UPPER DIV. AT THE SFC TWO BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SE KS WHILE THE DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE KS. ONGOING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE RIDGE IN AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. LOCAL HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED HOWEVER HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO ONE OR TWO COUNTIES. FINALLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WHAT APPEAR TO BE TWO WAVES WITHIN CORRIDOR OF SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO/BAJA WITH LARGE UPPER MOISTURE PLUME WRAPPING NORTHWARD BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE ROCKIES CUTOFF. TODAY...LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL. AS PREVIOUS FCSTR MENTIONED...UNTIL LATER TODAY EXPECT LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARIES SO EXPECT ALL OF CENTRAL KS TO REMAIN NORTH OF FRONT WHILE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL LIKELY ALSO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. NO DISCERNIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ACT AS MESOSCALE FORCING THROUGH MIDDAY SO ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG/NW OF FRONT. BY LATE DAY FIRST OF TWO SOUTHERN WAVES WILL APPROACH AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ANY DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE. CURRENT FCST HIGHS LOOK FINE. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR CENTRAL KS...LIKELY SOUTH CENTRAL...40-50 POPS SE. TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE AND UPPER JET STREAK STRUCTURE WILL COMBINE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER ONE INCH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. FIRST GUESS AT AREA MORE AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WOULD BE CENTRAL KS NEARER TO OR NW OF ANY FRONT. AM LEANING TOWARD HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT BASED ON THE THINKING THAT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINS MAY BECOME CLEARER TODAY WHILE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL WILL CARRY THE GOING FCST WITH NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL BUT SE COUNTIES. SAT/SAT NIGHT...FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF WHILE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVE EAST. NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL APPROACH BY LATE DAY FOR WHAT COULD PROVE TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD FORM OF LINE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY WORDING AND CURRENT TEMPS GOING. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...850 MOISTURE APPEARS TO VEER OFF HOWEVER A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS SO WILL CARRY THE GOING FCST. CAA SHOULD BE DOMINANT PROCESS BY MONDAY AND FRONT WILL BE SE OF THE AREA SO GOING FCST LOOKS FINE. BEYOND MONDAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED. CO .ICT...NONE.