731

FXUS64 KLUB 020846

AFDLBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

345 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2001



00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LEVEL 

TROF DIGGING INTO GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT AT 

06Z EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND 

INTO COLORADO WITH A DRY LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...

JUST EAST OF AMARILLO...WEST OF LUBBOCK AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 

CORNER OF NEW MEXICO. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON DEVELOPING A CUTOFF 

LOW AT 500MB OVER UTAH BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW REMAINING 

QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...ETA IS SLIGHTLY MORE 

PROGRESSIVE THEN THE AVN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS ON HANDLING OF 

COLD FRONT. ETA MOVES FRONT THROUGH FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY 

AFTERNOON WHILE AVN KEEPS FRONT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 

THE SHORT TERM. ETA USUALLY DOES BETTER ON HANDLING OF SHALLOW

COLD FRONTS AND WITH GOOD PRESSURE RISES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO

AND NEBRASKA AT 06Z WILL TEND TOWARD THE ETA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THIS WILL KEEP COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY WITH FRONT

BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OR NORTHERN

PERMIAN BASIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE 

INTO EASTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR

PRECIPITATION EAST OF CAPROCK TODAY...IN VICINITY OF DRY LINE. 

WITH FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSES 

MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS EXPECT

GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO 

CLOSE TO OR BELOW FWC GUIDANCE...LOWER THE MAV/FAN GUIDANCE FOR 

TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THIS 

MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODELS CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST NOT VERY 

HIGH. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXTENDED ATTM. THANKS AMA AND MAF 

FOR COORDINATION.



FRIONA/TULIA       91/50/70/47 1344   CHILDRESS 91/58/72/52  2464 

BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 94/57/72/50 1244   ASPERMONT 93/62/74/55  2344



.LUB...NONE.



JV/08