516 FXUS64 KLUB 021958 AFDLBB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 255 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CVS NORTHEAST TO GAG. A DRYLINE EXTENDED WEST OF MAF NORTH TO EAST OF LBB TO THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF SILVERTON. A COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE SFC FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN MODELS DIG THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NV/UT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THE H5 TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST SFC/850MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER NM AND CO SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTHWARD PUSH ON FRONT SHOULD LESSEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED GIVEN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 30 DEGREES. 0-3KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA...ANY ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAP ROCK TONIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TX PNHDL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SFC/850MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF SFC DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR CVS SOUTH...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CWFA. ATTM I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN NM. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE DRYLINE MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF CWFA AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE ETA ALSO SHOWS SFC RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TX PNHDL ON FRIDAY...THIS SHOULD PUSH SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AVN MODEL SOLUTION IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER AVDECTING CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF THE AVN MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT POP'S WILL BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER NM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE MRF SHOWS AN H5 TROF FORMING OVER NM BY TUE. I WILL PLACE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FRIONA 52/75/55/67 2343 TULIA 55/79/58/69 3353 CHILDRESS 64/80/63/78 4565 BROWNFIELD 57/82/58/82 2232 LUBBOCK 60/81/60/82 3352 ASPERMONT 67/80/66/79 3464 .LUB...NONE. 20  516 FXUS64 KLUB 021958 AFDLBB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 255 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF CVS NORTHEAST TO GAG. A DRYLINE EXTENDED WEST OF MAF NORTH TO EAST OF LBB TO THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF SILVERTON. A COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE SFC FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN MODELS DIG THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF OVER NV/UT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THE H5 TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST SFC/850MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER NM AND CO SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE SOUTHWARD PUSH ON FRONT SHOULD LESSEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SFC CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED GIVEN TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 30 DEGREES. 0-3KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA...ANY ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WEST SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAP ROCK TONIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TX PNHDL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS SFC/850MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM. SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF SFC DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR CVS SOUTH...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CWFA. ATTM I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN NM. THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE DRYLINE MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF CWFA AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE ETA ALSO SHOWS SFC RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TX PNHDL ON FRIDAY...THIS SHOULD PUSH SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AVN MODEL SOLUTION IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER AVDECTING CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF THE AVN MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT POP'S WILL BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE CLOSED LOW OVER NM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE MRF SHOWS AN H5 TROF FORMING OVER NM BY TUE. I WILL PLACE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FRIONA 52/75/55/67 2343 TULIA 55/79/58/69 3353 CHILDRESS 64/80/63/78 4565 BROWNFIELD 57/82/58/82 2232 LUBBOCK 60/81/60/82 3352 ASPERMONT 67/80/66/79 3464 .LUB...NONE. 20