566 FXUS64 KLUB 030905 AFDLBB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 405 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON MOVING CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR SALT LAKE CITY TO THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. AFTER THAT ETA APPEARS TO BE ODD MAN OUT AS AVN AND NGM HAVE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH WHILE ETA MOVES LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY. CANADIAN AND NAVY NOGAPS ALSO CLOSER TO AVN SOLUTION. AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE AVN. COLD FRONT AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF GAGE...SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO NEAR CLOVIS WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLOVIS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE STATE LINE. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE DAY WITH THE DRY LINE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK BY LATE AFTERNOON. WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR FORECAST AREA...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UTAH NOT MOVING OUT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING INTO AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED. FRIONA 78/50/72/42 2422 TULIA 79/55/74/48 3532 CHILDRESS 80/61/76/54 5653 BROWNFIELD 82/58/78/50 2322 LUBBOCK 80/58/78/52 3532 ASPERMONT 80/62/80/58 4643 .LUB...NONE. JV/08  566 FXUS64 KLUB 030905 AFDLBB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 405 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON MOVING CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR SALT LAKE CITY TO THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. AFTER THAT ETA APPEARS TO BE ODD MAN OUT AS AVN AND NGM HAVE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH WHILE ETA MOVES LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE FRIDAY. CANADIAN AND NAVY NOGAPS ALSO CLOSER TO AVN SOLUTION. AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE AVN. COLD FRONT AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF GAGE...SOUTH OF AMARILLO TO NEAR CLOVIS WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLOVIS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE STATE LINE. WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE DAY WITH THE DRY LINE MOVING TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK BY LATE AFTERNOON. WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR FORECAST AREA...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UTAH NOT MOVING OUT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING INTO AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED. FRIONA 78/50/72/42 2422 TULIA 79/55/74/48 3532 CHILDRESS 80/61/76/54 5653 BROWNFIELD 82/58/78/50 2322 LUBBOCK 80/58/78/52 3532 ASPERMONT 80/62/80/58 4643 .LUB...NONE. JV/08