640 FXUS64 KLUB 031900 AFDLBB SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 200 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS REGION AND DRYLINE BACKED UP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREAS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. FRONT MAY MOVE FARTHER NORTH WITH STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID AND UPPER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AMOUNTS OVER 1.0 INCH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND IN SUNNY AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED...BUT SUNSHINE MAY BE A PREMIUM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LIMITING INSTABILITY. STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE...PERHAPS HIGHER TO THE WEST WITH MORE SUN. WITH BOUNDARIES IN AREA...A FEW TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES AFTER 00Z AS IS PROGGED. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LARGE RAIN COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED BUT SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG 850 MB JET FEEDING STORMS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FELL YESTERDAY. TROPICAL CONNECTION NOTED FROM BAJA FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MAY ALSO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH POPS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND FORCING FROM LOW. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS AREA. LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVENT WITH SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. DRIER FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFT NE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ENDING THE RAIN THREAT... TEMPORARILY. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE AND DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. MRF INDICATING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER S/SW TEXAS. WARMER LATE IN WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN 80S. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW. FRIONA 50/74/49/79 5541 TULIA 50/75/50/81 6651 CHILDRESS 61/76/57/80 8765 BROWNFIELD 53/80/55/82 5544 LUBBOCK 55/78/55/80 7654 ASPERMONT 63/78/60/80 8765 .LUB...NONE. JAMES  640 FXUS64 KLUB 031900 AFDLBB SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 200 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS REGION AND DRYLINE BACKED UP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREAS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. FRONT MAY MOVE FARTHER NORTH WITH STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID AND UPPER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AMOUNTS OVER 1.0 INCH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR EXISTING BOUNDARIES AND IN SUNNY AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KLBB. AIR MASS IS WEAKLY CAPPED...BUT SUNSHINE MAY BE A PREMIUM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...LIMITING INSTABILITY. STILL SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE...PERHAPS HIGHER TO THE WEST WITH MORE SUN. WITH BOUNDARIES IN AREA...A FEW TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES AFTER 00Z AS IS PROGGED. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LARGE RAIN COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED BUT SHOULD PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG 850 MB JET FEEDING STORMS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FELL YESTERDAY. TROPICAL CONNECTION NOTED FROM BAJA FROM UPPER LOW OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MAY ALSO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH POPS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND FORCING FROM LOW. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS AREA. LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVENT WITH SEVERE CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. DRIER FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFT NE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ENDING THE RAIN THREAT... TEMPORARILY. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION...LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE AND DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. MRF INDICATING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER S/SW TEXAS. WARMER LATE IN WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN 80S. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW. FRIONA 50/74/49/79 5541 TULIA 50/75/50/81 6651 CHILDRESS 61/76/57/80 8765 BROWNFIELD 53/80/55/82 5544 LUBBOCK 55/78/55/80 7654 ASPERMONT 63/78/60/80 8765 .LUB...NONE. JAMES