556

FXUS64 KLUB 040855

AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

355 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 

DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH 

AT LEAST MID MORNING AS OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET INTERACT OVER THE 

NORTHEASTERN ZONES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO WILL 

DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH 

NORTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS.  



CONCERN THEN FOCUSES ON THE LOW OVER BAJA THAT APPEARS TO BE MOVING 

SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. JET MAX WITH THIS FEATURE AND 

INTERACTION WITH UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE OVER 

WEST TEXAS. SEVERE THREAT COULD BE INHIBITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD 

COVER. DRY SLOT THAT WORKS OVER WEST TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW 

FOR SOME HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH MAY BE LOCATED NEAR A 

CASTRO-LUBBOCK-MIDLAND COUNTY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE 

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE 

CONVECTION. HAVE CONTEMPLATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL HOLD OFF 

FOR RIGHT NOW SINCE BELIEVE THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE THIS 

MORNING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND WATCH HOW BAJA AND 

4-CORNERS LOW'S INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.



4-CORNERS LOW SHOULD KICK OUT ON SATURDAY SURGING THE DRYLINE TO THE 

EAST OF LBB. APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) 

WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

  

                FRIONA 65/48/74/48 7710     TULIA 65/49/75/48 7710

            BROWNFIELD 79/55/81/56 77-0   LUBBOCK 75/55/78/51 7710 

             CHILDRESS 74/58/80/54 8843 ASPERMONT 75/60/80/58 8842



.LUB...NONE.

MM










556

FXUS64 KLUB 040855

AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

355 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2001



CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FEED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 

DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH 

AT LEAST MID MORNING AS OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET INTERACT OVER THE 

NORTHEASTERN ZONES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO WILL 

DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH 

NORTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF THE LOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS.  



CONCERN THEN FOCUSES ON THE LOW OVER BAJA THAT APPEARS TO BE MOVING 

SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL FORECASTS. JET MAX WITH THIS FEATURE AND 

INTERACTION WITH UPPER LOW WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE OVER 

WEST TEXAS. SEVERE THREAT COULD BE INHIBITED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD 

COVER. DRY SLOT THAT WORKS OVER WEST TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW 

FOR SOME HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH MAY BE LOCATED NEAR A 

CASTRO-LUBBOCK-MIDLAND COUNTY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE 

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE 

CONVECTION. HAVE CONTEMPLATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL HOLD OFF 

FOR RIGHT NOW SINCE BELIEVE THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE THIS 

MORNING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND WATCH HOW BAJA AND 

4-CORNERS LOW'S INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.



4-CORNERS LOW SHOULD KICK OUT ON SATURDAY SURGING THE DRYLINE TO THE 

EAST OF LBB. APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) 

WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

  

                FRIONA 65/48/74/48 7710     TULIA 65/49/75/48 7710

            BROWNFIELD 79/55/81/56 77-0   LUBBOCK 75/55/78/51 7710 

             CHILDRESS 74/58/80/54 8843 ASPERMONT 75/60/80/58 8842



.LUB...NONE.

MM