856 WWUS84 KLUB 031649 SPSLBB TXZ021>044-031830- AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1140 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES. && 850MB/SFC WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS 850MB/SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST. IF SOLAR INSOLATION INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF SFC FRONT CAPES WILL BE AOA 3000J/KG. VERT WIND SHEAR PROFILES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE SUPERCELLS MAY SPAWN TORNADOES WHEN THEY INTERACT WITH ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES OR RIGHT MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NE-SW STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM S OF CVS TO S GAG. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUT FLOW BNDRY SOUTH OF LBB-CDS LINE. ANY STORMS MOVING NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.  856 WWUS84 KLUB 031649 SPSLBB TXZ021>044-031830- AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1140 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES. && 850MB/SFC WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS 850MB/SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST. IF SOLAR INSOLATION INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF SFC FRONT CAPES WILL BE AOA 3000J/KG. VERT WIND SHEAR PROFILES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE SUPERCELLS MAY SPAWN TORNADOES WHEN THEY INTERACT WITH ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES OR RIGHT MOVE PARALLEL TO THE NE-SW STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM S OF CVS TO S GAG. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUT FLOW BNDRY SOUTH OF LBB-CDS LINE. ANY STORMS MOVING NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.