893 FXUS64 KLZK 031955 AFDLIT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 255 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL 60+ DEWPOINTS HAVE WORKED INTO MUCH OF THE REGION SINCE THIS MORNING AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DECENT CU FIELD TO FORM WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMP WAS REACHED AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AR...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ANCHORED TO THE EAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM ERN KS BACK INTO WRN OK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST TRENDS. UPPER LOW EVIDENT OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SEWD THE NEXT 24 HRS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE UPPER LOW...WITH MAIN RAIN THREAT STAYING IN THE PLAINS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MAY AFFECT PARTS OF WRN AR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EWD ON SATURDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE SHIFTING N OF THE REGION. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE NGM AND AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ALL PERIODS. IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN THREAT MOST OF SUNDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD. SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND WORK THRU MUCH OF THE FA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. ..44.. .LIT...NONE.  893 FXUS64 KLZK 031955 AFDLIT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 255 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2001 FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES AND RAIN POTENTIAL 60+ DEWPOINTS HAVE WORKED INTO MUCH OF THE REGION SINCE THIS MORNING AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DECENT CU FIELD TO FORM WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMP WAS REACHED AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AR...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ANCHORED TO THE EAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM ERN KS BACK INTO WRN OK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST TRENDS. UPPER LOW EVIDENT OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SEWD THE NEXT 24 HRS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE UPPER LOW...WITH MAIN RAIN THREAT STAYING IN THE PLAINS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MAY AFFECT PARTS OF WRN AR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NEWD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EWD ON SATURDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE SHIFTING N OF THE REGION. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE NGM AND AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ALL PERIODS. IN THE EXTENDED...SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN THREAT MOST OF SUNDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD. SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND WORK THRU MUCH OF THE FA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. ..44.. .LIT...NONE.