279 NZUS03 KLZK 021923 WRKPUG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 300 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER NOTED ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN. CU FIELD COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION WITH NO RETURNS NOTED ON THE 88D ATTM. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN MAINLY OVER ERN AR WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WAS NOTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN STATES WILL DROP SLOWLY SWD INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF THRU FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATES. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SWLY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE PLAINS COULD AFFECT FAR WRN LATE IN THE DAY. THUS...WILL INTRO LOW POPS (20%) IN MY WRN COUNTIES LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THAT STATUS MAY AGAIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH SKY WORDING AND JUST STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE MORE AREAS FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE NGM AND AVN MOS GUIDANCE. IN THE EXTENDED...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NEWD AND SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES PASS THRU THE FA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY JUST OVER SRN MO. WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY OVER NRN HALF OF THE STATE. ..44.. .LIT...NONE.  279 NZUS03 KLZK 021923 WRKPUG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 300 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001 FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER NOTED ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN. CU FIELD COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION WITH NO RETURNS NOTED ON THE 88D ATTM. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN MAINLY OVER ERN AR WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WAS NOTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN STATES WILL DROP SLOWLY SWD INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF THRU FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN STATES. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SWLY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE SATURDAY. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP FRIDAY IN THE PLAINS COULD AFFECT FAR WRN LATE IN THE DAY. THUS...WILL INTRO LOW POPS (20%) IN MY WRN COUNTIES LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THAT STATUS MAY AGAIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH SKY WORDING AND JUST STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE MORE AREAS FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE NGM AND AVN MOS GUIDANCE. IN THE EXTENDED...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NEWD AND SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES PASS THRU THE FA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY JUST OVER SRN MO. WILL HAVE TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY OVER NRN HALF OF THE STATE. ..44.. .LIT...NONE.