618 ACUS KMKC 021303 MKC AC 021254 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CDS 55 ENE AMA 50 N GAG 35 SE FOD 20 ESE VOK 40 NW MKE 35 ESE RFD 25 N BMI COU OKC 25 E FSI 25 S SPS 55 N ABI 40 SW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 35 SSE MLU 25 NW GWO 10 NE TUP 20 SSW BHM 25 SSW CSG 45 W JAX 15 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 35 SW FST 20 ENE INK 30 NE HOB 55 ENE 4CR GNT 55 NE INW 30 W U17 35 WSW MLD 35 SW MSO 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 10 WNW RRT 45 ENE JMS 20 NNE RAP 45 NE DGW COS 20 SSW LHX 55 E LAA 30 S BBW 40 NNE SUX EAU 40 ENE MQT ...CONT... 25 S HUL 25 SSW BDL 15 ENE NHK 25 ENE RDU 15 S SPA 35 S TYS 30 N LEX 30 SSW FDY 25 ESE SBN 15 SSW SPI 40 NW FYV 45 NNE ADM 10 NE MWL 45 WSW JCT DRT. ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX NOW DROPPING SEWD ACROSS NV WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW LATER TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UT / AZ BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD / MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS NEWD FROM A LOW IN SWRN KS NEWD ACROSS SERN NEB AND CENTRAL IA INTO WI. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT TODAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND S CENTRAL INTO NERN KS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS CENTRAL IA AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER SWWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS KS / NRN AND WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB...BUT INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVERGENCE / UVV FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG SLY / SELY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS. INCREASINGLY STRONG /40 TO 60 KT/ SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BENEATH 30 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE AMOUNT OF VEERING AND RESULTING 40 TO 60 KTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN KS / NRN MO / SRN IA...WHERE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 05/02/01=  702 ACUS KMKC 021303 MKC AC 021254 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CDS 55 ENE AMA 50 N GAG 35 SE FOD 20 ESE VOK 40 NW MKE 35 ESE RFD 25 N BMI COU OKC 25 E FSI 25 S SPS 55 N ABI 40 SW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW 7R4 35 SSE MLU 25 NW GWO 10 NE TUP 20 SSW BHM 25 SSW CSG 45 W JAX 15 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 35 SW FST 20 ENE INK 30 NE HOB 55 ENE 4CR GNT 55 NE INW 30 W U17 35 WSW MLD 35 SW MSO 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 10 WNW RRT 45 ENE JMS 20 NNE RAP 45 NE DGW COS 20 SSW LHX 55 E LAA 30 S BBW 40 NNE SUX EAU 40 ENE MQT ...CONT... 25 S HUL 25 SSW BDL 15 ENE NHK 25 ENE RDU 15 S SPA 35 S TYS 30 N LEX 30 SSW FDY 25 ESE SBN 15 SSW SPI 40 NW FYV 45 NNE ADM 10 NE MWL 45 WSW JCT DRT. ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX NOW DROPPING SEWD ACROSS NV WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW LATER TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UT / AZ BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD / MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS NEWD FROM A LOW IN SWRN KS NEWD ACROSS SERN NEB AND CENTRAL IA INTO WI. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT TODAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND S CENTRAL INTO NERN KS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS CENTRAL IA AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER SWWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS KS / NRN AND WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB...BUT INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVERGENCE / UVV FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG SLY / SELY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS. INCREASINGLY STRONG /40 TO 60 KT/ SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BENEATH 30 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE AMOUNT OF VEERING AND RESULTING 40 TO 60 KTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN KS / NRN MO / SRN IA...WHERE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 05/02/01=