227 ACUS KMKC 021643 MKC AC 021635 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE AMA CNK 10 ENE DSM 10 E LNR MSN 20 E JVL MMO UIN SZL 10 SSW CNU 20 ESE PNC 10 S SPS 30 ENE ABI 35 WNW ABI 60 ESE LBB 55 NE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 30 SW FST 30 NE INK 35 NE HOB 50 ENE CVS 15 NE TCC LVS GNT 10 WSW SOW 20 SW FLG 10 N GCN 15 NNE BCE 25 ENE BYI 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 40 W BIS SHR 50 E RIW RWL 10 WNW PUB LHX 50 E LAA 10 NNE EAR 10 NNW SUX 10 S EAU ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSW HUL 20 E BAF 10 S NHK 25 NNW SOP 25 SE SPA 10 SW AND 30 NE RMG 40 W CSV 25 WNW LEX 15 NNE DAY 10 ENE FWA 15 SSE SBN 15 SW SPI SGF 50 W MLC 10 SSW MWL 25 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S 7R4 MCB MEI 15 N SEM 35 NE MAI CTY 35 ENE ORL. ...SYNOPSIS... 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER UT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE WRN SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDS FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA INTO A LOW OVER SWRN KS...THEN CURVES SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT. A DIFFUSE DRY LINE OVER SERN NM/FAR WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD INTO WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER WRN PARTS OF TX AND OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THINNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF OK. SURFACE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER OK AND KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MAXIMUM SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED FROM WRN OK INTO SRN KS. THERE IS CONCERN THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGER OVER ERN KS AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... PROVIDING MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT IN KS AND NWRN OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS HEATING RESULTS IN WEAKENING THE CAP. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF DRY LAYERS ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STORM INTENSITY MAY GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 03-05Z...ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER DARK. ...NRN MO/SRN IA INTO SWRN WI/NRN IL... STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. CLOUD COVER SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM DECAYING MCS OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING ALONG THE FRONT FROM IA INTO WI/NRN IL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS.. 05/02/01=  842 ACUS KMKC 021643 MKC AC 021635 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE AMA CNK 10 ENE DSM 10 E LNR MSN 20 E JVL MMO UIN SZL 10 SSW CNU 20 ESE PNC 10 S SPS 30 ENE ABI 35 WNW ABI 60 ESE LBB 55 NE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 30 SW FST 30 NE INK 35 NE HOB 50 ENE CVS 15 NE TCC LVS GNT 10 WSW SOW 20 SW FLG 10 N GCN 15 NNE BCE 25 ENE BYI 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 40 W BIS SHR 50 E RIW RWL 10 WNW PUB LHX 50 E LAA 10 NNE EAR 10 NNW SUX 10 S EAU ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSW HUL 20 E BAF 10 S NHK 25 NNW SOP 25 SE SPA 10 SW AND 30 NE RMG 40 W CSV 25 WNW LEX 15 NNE DAY 10 ENE FWA 15 SSE SBN 15 SW SPI SGF 50 W MLC 10 SSW MWL 25 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S 7R4 MCB MEI 15 N SEM 35 NE MAI CTY 35 ENE ORL. ...SYNOPSIS... 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER UT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE WRN SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDS FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA INTO A LOW OVER SWRN KS...THEN CURVES SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT. A DIFFUSE DRY LINE OVER SERN NM/FAR WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD INTO WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER WRN PARTS OF TX AND OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH THINNING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF OK. SURFACE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER OK AND KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MAXIMUM SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED FROM WRN OK INTO SRN KS. THERE IS CONCERN THAT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGER OVER ERN KS AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... PROVIDING MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT IN KS AND NWRN OK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS HEATING RESULTS IN WEAKENING THE CAP. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...PRESENCE OF DRY LAYERS ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH STORM INTENSITY MAY GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 03-05Z...ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER DARK. ...NRN MO/SRN IA INTO SWRN WI/NRN IL... STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. CLOUD COVER SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM DECAYING MCS OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING ALONG THE FRONT FROM IA INTO WI/NRN IL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..WEISS.. 05/02/01=