383 ACUS KMKC 021956 MKC AC 021948 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE AMA 15 S CNK 35 NW LWD 35 NE LWD 35 NNW IRK 25 WSW IRK 50 N SZL 30 WNW SZL 30 S OJC 15 NW CNU 25 E END 45 W OKC 50 N ABI 50 WNW ABI 50 SE LBB 55 NE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GLS 30 SW POE 35 NNE LFT 35 ESE MEI 35 NE MAI 50 S GNV 15 N PBI ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW FST 30 NE INK 35 NE HOB 50 ENE CVS 15 NE TCC LVS GNT 10 WSW SOW 20 SW FLG 10 N GCN 15 NNE BCE 25 ENE BYI 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 40 ESE Y22 35 E SHR 50 E RIW RWL 10 WNW PUB LHX 50 E LAA 10 NNE EAR 10 NNW SUX 10 S EAU 110 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSW HUL 15 SW BAF 20 WSW DCA 25 NNW SOP 25 SE SPA 10 SW AND 30 NE RMG 40 W CSV 25 WNW LEX 15 NNE DAY 10 ENE FWA 15 SSE SBN 35 W MMO 15 SE SZL OKC 50 NNE JCT 55 WSW COT. ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN IS BEGINNING TO FORM A CLOSED LOW AS A STRONG JET MAX DROPS SWD INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING THIS UPPER LOW OVER UT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND CNTRL IA INTO ERN WI WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A DRY LINE OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MIX EWD TO NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING WWD THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. ...SRN KS/NWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE... STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL KS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AN APPARENT PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S-MID 90S. THUS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND GIVEN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM... SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU BEGINNING TO FORM ROUGHLY 20 NW P28-30 E GAG-50 N CDS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 12 UTC ETAKF AND 18 UTC RUC40 SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE AFTER 21 UTC. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN MODIFYING THE 18 UTC SPECIAL OUN SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS NEAR CDS. PROFILER AT TUCUMCARI SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL JET CURVING FROM AZ INTO CO ATTM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE TSTMS WITH DEEP LAYER VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE E-NEWD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK/SCNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ...ERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VSBL IMAGERY FROM SERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY HAS INHIBITED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO ISOLD HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 05/02/01=  455 ACUS KMKC 021956 MKC AC 021948 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE AMA 15 S CNK 35 NW LWD 35 NE LWD 35 NNW IRK 25 WSW IRK 50 N SZL 30 WNW SZL 30 S OJC 15 NW CNU 25 E END 45 W OKC 50 N ABI 50 WNW ABI 50 SE LBB 55 NE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GLS 30 SW POE 35 NNE LFT 35 ESE MEI 35 NE MAI 50 S GNV 15 N PBI ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW FST 30 NE INK 35 NE HOB 50 ENE CVS 15 NE TCC LVS GNT 10 WSW SOW 20 SW FLG 10 N GCN 15 NNE BCE 25 ENE BYI 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 40 ESE Y22 35 E SHR 50 E RIW RWL 10 WNW PUB LHX 50 E LAA 10 NNE EAR 10 NNW SUX 10 S EAU 110 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSW HUL 15 SW BAF 20 WSW DCA 25 NNW SOP 25 SE SPA 10 SW AND 30 NE RMG 40 W CSV 25 WNW LEX 15 NNE DAY 10 ENE FWA 15 SSE SBN 35 W MMO 15 SE SZL OKC 50 NNE JCT 55 WSW COT. ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN IS BEGINNING TO FORM A CLOSED LOW AS A STRONG JET MAX DROPS SWD INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING THIS UPPER LOW OVER UT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND CNTRL IA INTO ERN WI WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A DRY LINE OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MIX EWD TO NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING WWD THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. ...SRN KS/NWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE... STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL KS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AN APPARENT PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S-MID 90S. THUS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND GIVEN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM... SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU BEGINNING TO FORM ROUGHLY 20 NW P28-30 E GAG-50 N CDS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 12 UTC ETAKF AND 18 UTC RUC40 SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE AFTER 21 UTC. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN MODIFYING THE 18 UTC SPECIAL OUN SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS NEAR CDS. PROFILER AT TUCUMCARI SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL JET CURVING FROM AZ INTO CO ATTM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE TSTMS WITH DEEP LAYER VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE E-NEWD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK/SCNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ...ERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VSBL IMAGERY FROM SERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY HAS INHIBITED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO ISOLD HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 05/02/01=  383 ACUS KMKC 021956 MKC AC 021948 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE AMA 15 S CNK 35 NW LWD 35 NE LWD 35 NNW IRK 25 WSW IRK 50 N SZL 30 WNW SZL 30 S OJC 15 NW CNU 25 E END 45 W OKC 50 N ABI 50 WNW ABI 50 SE LBB 55 NE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GLS 30 SW POE 35 NNE LFT 35 ESE MEI 35 NE MAI 50 S GNV 15 N PBI ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW FST 30 NE INK 35 NE HOB 50 ENE CVS 15 NE TCC LVS GNT 10 WSW SOW 20 SW FLG 10 N GCN 15 NNE BCE 25 ENE BYI 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 40 ESE Y22 35 E SHR 50 E RIW RWL 10 WNW PUB LHX 50 E LAA 10 NNE EAR 10 NNW SUX 10 S EAU 110 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSW HUL 15 SW BAF 20 WSW DCA 25 NNW SOP 25 SE SPA 10 SW AND 30 NE RMG 40 W CSV 25 WNW LEX 15 NNE DAY 10 ENE FWA 15 SSE SBN 35 W MMO 15 SE SZL OKC 50 NNE JCT 55 WSW COT. ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN IS BEGINNING TO FORM A CLOSED LOW AS A STRONG JET MAX DROPS SWD INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING THIS UPPER LOW OVER UT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND CNTRL IA INTO ERN WI WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A DRY LINE OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MIX EWD TO NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING WWD THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. ...SRN KS/NWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE... STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL KS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AN APPARENT PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S-MID 90S. THUS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND GIVEN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM... SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU BEGINNING TO FORM ROUGHLY 20 NW P28-30 E GAG-50 N CDS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 12 UTC ETAKF AND 18 UTC RUC40 SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE AFTER 21 UTC. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN MODIFYING THE 18 UTC SPECIAL OUN SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS NEAR CDS. PROFILER AT TUCUMCARI SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL JET CURVING FROM AZ INTO CO ATTM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE TSTMS WITH DEEP LAYER VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE E-NEWD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK/SCNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ...ERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VSBL IMAGERY FROM SERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY HAS INHIBITED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO ISOLD HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 05/02/01=  455 ACUS KMKC 021956 MKC AC 021948 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE AMA 15 S CNK 35 NW LWD 35 NE LWD 35 NNW IRK 25 WSW IRK 50 N SZL 30 WNW SZL 30 S OJC 15 NW CNU 25 E END 45 W OKC 50 N ABI 50 WNW ABI 50 SE LBB 55 NE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GLS 30 SW POE 35 NNE LFT 35 ESE MEI 35 NE MAI 50 S GNV 15 N PBI ...CONT... 90 SW P07 30 SW FST 30 NE INK 35 NE HOB 50 ENE CVS 15 NE TCC LVS GNT 10 WSW SOW 20 SW FLG 10 N GCN 15 NNE BCE 25 ENE BYI 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 40 ESE Y22 35 E SHR 50 E RIW RWL 10 WNW PUB LHX 50 E LAA 10 NNE EAR 10 NNW SUX 10 S EAU 110 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 SSW HUL 15 SW BAF 20 WSW DCA 25 NNW SOP 25 SE SPA 10 SW AND 30 NE RMG 40 W CSV 25 WNW LEX 15 NNE DAY 10 ENE FWA 15 SSE SBN 35 W MMO 15 SE SZL OKC 50 NNE JCT 55 WSW COT. ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN IS BEGINNING TO FORM A CLOSED LOW AS A STRONG JET MAX DROPS SWD INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STALLING THIS UPPER LOW OVER UT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND CNTRL IA INTO ERN WI WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A DRY LINE OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MIX EWD TO NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING WWD THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. ...SRN KS/NWRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE... STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SCNTRL KS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND AN APPARENT PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S-MID 90S. THUS...THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND GIVEN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM... SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU BEGINNING TO FORM ROUGHLY 20 NW P28-30 E GAG-50 N CDS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 12 UTC ETAKF AND 18 UTC RUC40 SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE AFTER 21 UTC. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN MODIFYING THE 18 UTC SPECIAL OUN SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS NEAR CDS. PROFILER AT TUCUMCARI SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION RESIDES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL JET CURVING FROM AZ INTO CO ATTM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE TSTMS WITH DEEP LAYER VALUES OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP/MOVE E-NEWD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK/SCNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY GIVEN THE LOSS OF INSOLATION. ...ERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON VSBL IMAGERY FROM SERN KS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY HAS INHIBITED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO ISOLD HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 05/02/01=