197 ACUS KMKC 030107 MKC AC 030059 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW GAG 35 SSE DDC 20 NNE SLN 25 NE FNB 35 WSW P35 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW PNC 40 W OKC 45 NW ABI 20 N BGS 10 SW LBB 60 WSW GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N MTC 20 NNE LAN 25 WNW BEH 40 NNE PIA 15 SE SZL OKC 45 ESE SJT 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 100 SW P07 10 W FST 55 SSW CVS 20 S LVS 25 W 4SL 25 SW CEZ 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW EGE 40 W PUB 30 W GCK 40 N RSL 30 SSE SPW 90 NNW ANJ. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS... NWRN OK THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NERN NM. KS PORTION OF FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE MERGES WITH FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS S THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD NWWD INTO NWRN TX...WRN OK AND SRN KS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. RICHER MOISTER REMAINS E OF DRYLINE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR FRONT FROM NWRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROMOTED WEAKER CAP. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED FURTHER E. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO KS WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THAT PORTION OF BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY WITH TIME AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO LINES AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN W TX. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=  535 ACUS KMKC 030107 MKC AC 030059 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW GAG 35 SSE DDC 20 NNE SLN 25 NE FNB 35 WSW P35 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW PNC 40 W OKC 45 NW ABI 20 N BGS 10 SW LBB 60 WSW GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N MTC 20 NNE LAN 25 WNW BEH 40 NNE PIA 15 SE SZL OKC 45 ESE SJT 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 100 SW P07 10 W FST 55 SSW CVS 20 S LVS 25 W 4SL 25 SW CEZ 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW EGE 40 W PUB 30 W GCK 40 N RSL 30 SSE SPW 90 NNW ANJ. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS... NWRN OK THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NERN NM. KS PORTION OF FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE MERGES WITH FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS S THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD NWWD INTO NWRN TX...WRN OK AND SRN KS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. RICHER MOISTER REMAINS E OF DRYLINE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR FRONT FROM NWRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROMOTED WEAKER CAP. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED FURTHER E. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO KS WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THAT PORTION OF BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY WITH TIME AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO LINES AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN W TX. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=  197 ACUS KMKC 030107 MKC AC 030059 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW GAG 35 SSE DDC 20 NNE SLN 25 NE FNB 35 WSW P35 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW PNC 40 W OKC 45 NW ABI 20 N BGS 10 SW LBB 60 WSW GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N MTC 20 NNE LAN 25 WNW BEH 40 NNE PIA 15 SE SZL OKC 45 ESE SJT 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 100 SW P07 10 W FST 55 SSW CVS 20 S LVS 25 W 4SL 25 SW CEZ 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW EGE 40 W PUB 30 W GCK 40 N RSL 30 SSE SPW 90 NNW ANJ. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS... NWRN OK THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NERN NM. KS PORTION OF FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE MERGES WITH FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS S THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD NWWD INTO NWRN TX...WRN OK AND SRN KS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. RICHER MOISTER REMAINS E OF DRYLINE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR FRONT FROM NWRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROMOTED WEAKER CAP. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED FURTHER E. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO KS WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THAT PORTION OF BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY WITH TIME AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO LINES AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN W TX. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=  535 ACUS KMKC 030107 MKC AC 030059 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW GAG 35 SSE DDC 20 NNE SLN 25 NE FNB 35 WSW P35 25 ESE MKC 10 NNW PNC 40 W OKC 45 NW ABI 20 N BGS 10 SW LBB 60 WSW GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N MTC 20 NNE LAN 25 WNW BEH 40 NNE PIA 15 SE SZL OKC 45 ESE SJT 55 WSW COT ...CONT... 100 SW P07 10 W FST 55 SSW CVS 20 S LVS 25 W 4SL 25 SW CEZ 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW EGE 40 W PUB 30 W GCK 40 N RSL 30 SSE SPW 90 NNW ANJ. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS... NWRN OK THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO NERN NM. KS PORTION OF FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH TX PANHANDLE. DRYLINE MERGES WITH FRONT OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS S THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY MOIST AXIS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD NWWD INTO NWRN TX...WRN OK AND SRN KS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. RICHER MOISTER REMAINS E OF DRYLINE WITH 50S DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR FRONT FROM NWRN TX NEWD THROUGH WRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROMOTED WEAKER CAP. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED FURTHER E. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO KS WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT ALONG THAT PORTION OF BOUNDARY. SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED SLIGHTLY WITH TIME AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK BASED ON CURRENT STORM MOTION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND EVOLVE INTO LINES AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN W TX. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=