634 ACUS KMKC 030603 MKC AC 030554 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 SSW MAF 35 WNW LBB 35 W AMA 60 NNE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 25 NE BWD 50 NW SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE EFK 15 NNE ALB 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 55 SSW SOW 45 ESE IGM 40 E SGU 15 W 4HV 35 E GJT 40 WSW AKO 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 35 SSE VLD MLB. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. IN THE PROCESS SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND SERN IA WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY. DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT CAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL W OF AREA...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL TX WHEN SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES TX AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. WEAKENING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FARTHER NEWD ALONG KS/MO PORTION OF FRONT. IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR S OF THE BOUNDARY... AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=  565 ACUS KMKC 030603 MKC AC 030554 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 SSW MAF 35 WNW LBB 35 W AMA 60 NNE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 25 NE BWD 50 NW SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE EFK 15 NNE ALB 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 55 SSW SOW 45 ESE IGM 40 E SGU 15 W 4HV 35 E GJT 40 WSW AKO 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 35 SSE VLD MLB. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. IN THE PROCESS SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND SERN IA WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY. DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT CAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL W OF AREA...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL TX WHEN SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES TX AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. WEAKENING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FARTHER NEWD ALONG KS/MO PORTION OF FRONT. IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR S OF THE BOUNDARY... AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=  634 ACUS KMKC 030603 MKC AC 030554 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 SSW MAF 35 WNW LBB 35 W AMA 60 NNE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 25 NE BWD 50 NW SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE EFK 15 NNE ALB 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 55 SSW SOW 45 ESE IGM 40 E SGU 15 W 4HV 35 E GJT 40 WSW AKO 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 35 SSE VLD MLB. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. IN THE PROCESS SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND SERN IA WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY. DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT CAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL W OF AREA...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL TX WHEN SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES TX AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. WEAKENING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FARTHER NEWD ALONG KS/MO PORTION OF FRONT. IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR S OF THE BOUNDARY... AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=  565 ACUS KMKC 030603 MKC AC 030554 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 SSW MAF 35 WNW LBB 35 W AMA 60 NNE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 25 NE BWD 50 NW SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE EFK 15 NNE ALB 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 55 SSW SOW 45 ESE IGM 40 E SGU 15 W 4HV 35 E GJT 40 WSW AKO 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 35 SSE VLD MLB. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD AND BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. IN THE PROCESS SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND SERN IA WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY. DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH WRN TX. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LACK OF SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT CAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 2000 J/KG. WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL W OF AREA...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL TX WHEN SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES TX AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING. WEAKENING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FARTHER NEWD ALONG KS/MO PORTION OF FRONT. IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR S OF THE BOUNDARY... AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 05/03/01=