993 ACUS KMKC 031241 MKC AC 031234 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 SSW MAF 35 WNW LBB 35 W AMA 60 NNE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 25 NE BWD 50 NW SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 WNW EEN 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 55 SSW SOW 20 WNW PRC 40 E SGU 45 W PUC 45 W EGE 15 SE LIC 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 25 N DAB. ...SYNOPSIS... MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TROUGH / CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERIOR ROCKIES / SWRN U.S. WHICH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE...WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE ERN GULF / FL. ONE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VORT MAX / JET STREAK EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WEST OF SRN BAJA MOVING NEWD TOWARD NRN MEXICO. THIS MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTH / WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO W TX...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS OK / KS AND THE MID MO / MS VALLEYS... INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED WITH TIME AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX / SWRN OK... CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN WRN N TX SWD TO NEAR SJT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMITING HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...AND THUS ONLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS. SLY 850 MB FLOW 20 TO 25 KTS IS FORECAST BENEATH 25 TO 35 KTS SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION FORECAST. NONETHELESS...A SMALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INVOF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND IN ANY AREAS OF GREATER HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL / WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN / SWRN TX AND EVENTUALLY NWD INTO WRN N TX AS STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE REGION ABOVE INCREASINGLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO / MS VALLEYS... STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS WRN NEB / IA INTO SRN WI / NRN IL NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET. MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE 500 TO 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...SO SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SWLY 35 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUFFICIENT FOR A SMALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF BOUNDARY... WHICH COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A FEW MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR / MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED HERE AS WELL. WILL NOT ISSUE SLIGHT RISK ATTM DUE TO ISOLATED / MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ..GOSS.. 05/03/01=  993 ACUS KMKC 031241 MKC AC 031234 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 SSW MAF 35 WNW LBB 35 W AMA 60 NNE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 25 NE BWD 50 NW SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 WNW EEN 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 55 SSW SOW 20 WNW PRC 40 E SGU 45 W PUC 45 W EGE 15 SE LIC 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 25 N DAB. ...SYNOPSIS... MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TROUGH / CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERIOR ROCKIES / SWRN U.S. WHICH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE...WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE ERN GULF / FL. ONE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE IS A VORT MAX / JET STREAK EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WEST OF SRN BAJA MOVING NEWD TOWARD NRN MEXICO. THIS MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTH / WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO W TX...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS OK / KS AND THE MID MO / MS VALLEYS... INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED WITH TIME AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX / SWRN OK... CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...AND NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN WRN N TX SWD TO NEAR SJT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMITING HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...AND THUS ONLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS FORECAST IN MOST AREAS. SLY 850 MB FLOW 20 TO 25 KTS IS FORECAST BENEATH 25 TO 35 KTS SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN MODEST DESTABILIZATION FORECAST. NONETHELESS...A SMALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INVOF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND IN ANY AREAS OF GREATER HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL / WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN / SWRN TX AND EVENTUALLY NWD INTO WRN N TX AS STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVES NEWD INTO THE REGION ABOVE INCREASINGLY STRONG SELY LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO / MS VALLEYS... STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS WRN NEB / IA INTO SRN WI / NRN IL NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET. MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE 500 TO 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...SO SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SWLY 35 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...SUFFICIENT FOR A SMALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF BOUNDARY... WHICH COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A FEW MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR / MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED HERE AS WELL. WILL NOT ISSUE SLIGHT RISK ATTM DUE TO ISOLATED / MARGINAL NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ..GOSS.. 05/03/01=