546 ACUS KMKC 040553 MKC AC 040545 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SJT 55 ENE P07 30 ENE FST 35 WNW MAF 30 NNE HOB 65 W CVS 40 S LVS 40 E LVS 35 W DHT 50 E DHT 55 WNW CSM 45 S LTS ABI 30 SE SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ORF RDU 15 E HKY 15 NW LOZ SDF 25 ENE SLO 35 WSW STL 30 N SGF 20 S JLN 35 WNW PGO TYR 60 E CLL 35 WSW GLS ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 45 NNE MRF 35 SW HOB 15 NNE ROW 4CR 60 W ONM 20 WSW SOW 25 NW PRC 40 SW SGU 30 N P38 60 ENE ELY 20 WSW SLC 35 SE EVW 55 SE RKS 30 ENE CAG 4FC 30 SE DEN 30 S AKO 40 W IML 25 WSW MHN 20 NNW ANW 40 W YKN 25 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 30 WSW ALO 25 WNW LNR 15 NE MTW 40 NNE HTL 100 E OSC 40 N ROC 30 NNW GFL 20 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ VRB. ...WRN THROUGH NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM CNTRL INTO NWRN TX. STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS ERN NM AS HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE DAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...TX PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS AS IT IS REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN TX. THE 00Z OBSERVED FTW AND LRD SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING ALREADY SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF TX. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF TX FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS WRN TX AND ERN NM WHERE DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THESE AREAS AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX. HOWEVER...AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NWD...SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX AND ALSO ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FURTHER EAST IN DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... INCREASING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. ...NERN U.S.... A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO MEAGER FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/04/01=  037 ACUS KMKC 040553 MKC AC 040545 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SJT 55 ENE P07 30 ENE FST 35 WNW MAF 30 NNE HOB 65 W CVS 40 S LVS 40 E LVS 35 W DHT 50 E DHT 55 WNW CSM 45 S LTS ABI 30 SE SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ORF RDU 15 E HKY 15 NW LOZ SDF 25 ENE SLO 35 WSW STL 30 N SGF 20 S JLN 35 WNW PGO TYR 60 E CLL 35 WSW GLS ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 45 NNE MRF 35 SW HOB 15 NNE ROW 4CR 60 W ONM 20 WSW SOW 25 NW PRC 40 SW SGU 30 N P38 60 ENE ELY 20 WSW SLC 35 SE EVW 55 SE RKS 30 ENE CAG 4FC 30 SE DEN 30 S AKO 40 W IML 25 WSW MHN 20 NNW ANW 40 W YKN 25 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 30 WSW ALO 25 WNW LNR 15 NE MTW 40 NNE HTL 100 E OSC 40 N ROC 30 NNW GFL 20 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ VRB. ...WRN THROUGH NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM CNTRL INTO NWRN TX. STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS ERN NM AS HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE DAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...TX PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS AS IT IS REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN TX. THE 00Z OBSERVED FTW AND LRD SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING ALREADY SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF TX. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF TX FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS WRN TX AND ERN NM WHERE DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THESE AREAS AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX. HOWEVER...AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NWD...SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX AND ALSO ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FURTHER EAST IN DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... INCREASING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. ...NERN U.S.... A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO MEAGER FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/04/01=  546 ACUS KMKC 040553 MKC AC 040545 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SJT 55 ENE P07 30 ENE FST 35 WNW MAF 30 NNE HOB 65 W CVS 40 S LVS 40 E LVS 35 W DHT 50 E DHT 55 WNW CSM 45 S LTS ABI 30 SE SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ORF RDU 15 E HKY 15 NW LOZ SDF 25 ENE SLO 35 WSW STL 30 N SGF 20 S JLN 35 WNW PGO TYR 60 E CLL 35 WSW GLS ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 45 NNE MRF 35 SW HOB 15 NNE ROW 4CR 60 W ONM 20 WSW SOW 25 NW PRC 40 SW SGU 30 N P38 60 ENE ELY 20 WSW SLC 35 SE EVW 55 SE RKS 30 ENE CAG 4FC 30 SE DEN 30 S AKO 40 W IML 25 WSW MHN 20 NNW ANW 40 W YKN 25 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 30 WSW ALO 25 WNW LNR 15 NE MTW 40 NNE HTL 100 E OSC 40 N ROC 30 NNW GFL 20 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ VRB. ...WRN THROUGH NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM CNTRL INTO NWRN TX. STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS ERN NM AS HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE DAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...TX PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS AS IT IS REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN TX. THE 00Z OBSERVED FTW AND LRD SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING ALREADY SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF TX. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF TX FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS WRN TX AND ERN NM WHERE DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THESE AREAS AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX. HOWEVER...AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NWD...SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX AND ALSO ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FURTHER EAST IN DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... INCREASING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. ...NERN U.S.... A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO MEAGER FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/04/01=  037 ACUS KMKC 040553 MKC AC 040545 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE SJT 55 ENE P07 30 ENE FST 35 WNW MAF 30 NNE HOB 65 W CVS 40 S LVS 40 E LVS 35 W DHT 50 E DHT 55 WNW CSM 45 S LTS ABI 30 SE SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ORF RDU 15 E HKY 15 NW LOZ SDF 25 ENE SLO 35 WSW STL 30 N SGF 20 S JLN 35 WNW PGO TYR 60 E CLL 35 WSW GLS ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 45 NNE MRF 35 SW HOB 15 NNE ROW 4CR 60 W ONM 20 WSW SOW 25 NW PRC 40 SW SGU 30 N P38 60 ENE ELY 20 WSW SLC 35 SE EVW 55 SE RKS 30 ENE CAG 4FC 30 SE DEN 30 S AKO 40 W IML 25 WSW MHN 20 NNW ANW 40 W YKN 25 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 30 WSW ALO 25 WNW LNR 15 NE MTW 40 NNE HTL 100 E OSC 40 N ROC 30 NNW GFL 20 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ VRB. ...WRN THROUGH NWRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM CNTRL INTO NWRN TX. STATIONARY FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG WRN PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS ERN NM AS HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE DAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...TX PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE NWD PROGRESS AS IT IS REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THROUGH SRN TX. THE 00Z OBSERVED FTW AND LRD SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING ALREADY SHOWED FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF TX. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF TX FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS WRN TX AND ERN NM WHERE DRY SLOT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THESE AREAS AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX. HOWEVER...AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NWD...SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX AND ALSO ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FURTHER EAST IN DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... INCREASING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. ...NERN U.S.... A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO MEAGER FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/04/01=