151 ACUS KMKC 041240 MKC AC 041231 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SJT 45 ENE P07 P07 FST INK 10 E ROW 25 ESE 4CR LVS CAO 40 SE EHA 40 SW GAG 15 S CDS 35 E BGS 50 SW SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF GDP ALM TCS SAD PHX IGM P38 ENV MLD EVW 45 NE VEL CAG EGE GUC ALS TAD LAA GLD BUB YKN MKT AUW 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG BML 15 E BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE ECG RDU 10 ESE HKY TYS LEX MDH UNO HRO HOT TXK GGG HOU 30 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...PROGRESSING ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT CURVING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...MID /UPPER-LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...WHERE DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG DRY LINE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT...FROM ROSWELL AND CLOVIS AREAS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE VICINITY OF CHILDRESS TX. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING ALONG FRONT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND... MODELS SUGGEST FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...AND FAIRLY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. NARROW BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TOWARD 05/00Z...SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO REGION. WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT ALONG FRONT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA IS REFLECTIVE OF STEEP LOWER/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ...AND BENEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP...MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ..KERR.. 05/04/01=  151 ACUS KMKC 041240 MKC AC 041231 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SJT 45 ENE P07 P07 FST INK 10 E ROW 25 ESE 4CR LVS CAO 40 SE EHA 40 SW GAG 15 S CDS 35 E BGS 50 SW SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF GDP ALM TCS SAD PHX IGM P38 ENV MLD EVW 45 NE VEL CAG EGE GUC ALS TAD LAA GLD BUB YKN MKT AUW 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG BML 15 E BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE ECG RDU 10 ESE HKY TYS LEX MDH UNO HRO HOT TXK GGG HOU 30 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...PROGRESSING ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW WILL ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT CURVING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE...MID /UPPER-LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...WHERE DRY SLOT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG DRY LINE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ALONG SURFACE FRONT...FROM ROSWELL AND CLOVIS AREAS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE VICINITY OF CHILDRESS TX. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OCCURRING ALONG FRONT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND... MODELS SUGGEST FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE DIGGING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG FRONT...AND FAIRLY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. NARROW BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TOWARD 05/00Z...SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO REGION. WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT ALONG FRONT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA IS REFLECTIVE OF STEEP LOWER/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER ...AND BENEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP...MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ..KERR.. 05/04/01=