429 ACUS1 KMKC 031602 SWODY1 MKC AC 031556 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 S CVS 30 SW AMA 45 NE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 10 W BWD 40 SE JCT 60 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 WNW EEN 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 35 SSE SOW 45 N PRC 40 E SGU 45 W PUC 45 W EGE 15 SE LIC 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 25 N DAB. ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW SRN UT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NERN AZ BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ERN U.S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SWWD THRU GREAT LAKES AND THEN EXTENDS AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN CORNER OF NM. DRY LINE FROM SERN NM SWD THRU PECOS RIVER VALLEY WILL MIX ONLY A LITTLE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SWRN OK... WITH LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADIENT FAVORS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR TO VICINITY PECOS RIVER VALLEY. FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS ABOUT STALLED EXTENDS FROM S OF GAG SWWD TO NW OF CDS AND LBB THEN TO NEAR CNM. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT MAF/DRT INDICATED CAPPING INVERSION. HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN LID SUFFICIENCY BY MID AFTERNOON TO ALLOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF DRY LINE NWD TO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60F AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO LOW 80S MUCAPE WILL CLIMB TO 2500 J/KG W TX TO E OF DRY LINE. WHILE STRONGER WINDS AT MID LEVEL WILL BE WEST OF DRY LINE AROUND UPPER LOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS AND RESULT IN HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS TO 150 M2/S2. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF TORNADOS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE EARLY IN AFTERNOON VICINITY AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE TX PANHANDLE AND THEN FURTHER S WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS W TX. DURING EVENING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KT W TX WHICH WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND END AROUND 06Z. ..HALES.. 05/03/01  429 ACUS1 KMKC 031602 SWODY1 MKC AC 031556 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 S CVS 30 SW AMA 45 NE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 10 W BWD 40 SE JCT 60 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 WNW EEN 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 35 SSE SOW 45 N PRC 40 E SGU 45 W PUC 45 W EGE 15 SE LIC 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 25 N DAB. ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW SRN UT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NERN AZ BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ERN U.S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SWWD THRU GREAT LAKES AND THEN EXTENDS AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN CORNER OF NM. DRY LINE FROM SERN NM SWD THRU PECOS RIVER VALLEY WILL MIX ONLY A LITTLE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SWRN OK... WITH LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADIENT FAVORS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR TO VICINITY PECOS RIVER VALLEY. FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS ABOUT STALLED EXTENDS FROM S OF GAG SWWD TO NW OF CDS AND LBB THEN TO NEAR CNM. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT MAF/DRT INDICATED CAPPING INVERSION. HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN LID SUFFICIENCY BY MID AFTERNOON TO ALLOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF DRY LINE NWD TO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60F AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO LOW 80S MUCAPE WILL CLIMB TO 2500 J/KG W TX TO E OF DRY LINE. WHILE STRONGER WINDS AT MID LEVEL WILL BE WEST OF DRY LINE AROUND UPPER LOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS AND RESULT IN HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS TO 150 M2/S2. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF TORNADOS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE EARLY IN AFTERNOON VICINITY AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE TX PANHANDLE AND THEN FURTHER S WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS W TX. DURING EVENING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KT W TX WHICH WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND END AROUND 06Z. ..HALES.. 05/03/01  297 ACUS1 KMKC 031616 SWODY1 MKC AC 031615 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 S CVS 30 SW AMA 45 NE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 10 W BWD 40 SE JCT 60 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 WNW EEN 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 35 SSE SOW 45 N PRC 40 E SGU 45 W PUC 45 W EGE 15 SE LIC 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 25 N DAB. ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW SRN UT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NERN AZ BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ERN U.S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SWWD THRU GREAT LAKES AND THEN EXTENDS AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN CORNER OF NM. DRY LINE FROM SERN NM SWD THRU PECOS RIVER VALLEY WILL MIX ONLY A LITTLE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SWRN OK... WITH LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADIENT FAVORS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR TO VICINITY PECOS RIVER VALLEY. FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS ABOUT STALLED EXTENDS FORM S OF GAG SWWD TO NW OF CDS AND LBB THEN TO NEAR CNM. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT MAF/DRT INDICATED CAPPING INVERSION. HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN LID SUFFICIENCY BY MID AFTERNOON TO ALLOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF DRY LINE NWD TO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60F AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO LOW 80S MUCAPE WILL CLIMB TO 2500 J/KG W TX TO E OF DRY LINE. WHILE STRONGER WINDS AT MID LEVEL WILL BE WEST OF DRY LINE AROUND UPPER LOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS AND RESULT IN HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS TO 150 M2/S2.. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF TORNADOS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE EARLY IN AFTERNOON VICINITY AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE TX PANHANDLE AND THEN FURTHER S WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS W TX. DURING EVENING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KT W TX WHICH WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND END AROUND 06Z. ..HALES.. 05/03/01  297 ACUS1 KMKC 031616 SWODY1 MKC AC 031615 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 15 SSE INK 55 S CVS 30 SW AMA 45 NE AMA 35 NW CSM 25 W FSI 10 W BWD 40 SE JCT 60 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 WNW EEN 25 NW AVP 35 WNW CXY 15 ENE CHO 15 S GSO 25 NNW AND 35 WSW CSV 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 WNW FYV 25 SW MLC 30 SSE DAL 35 NE AUS 40 NW NIR 40 S LRD ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 30 NNE 4CR 35 SSE SOW 45 N PRC 40 E SGU 45 W PUC 45 W EGE 15 SE LIC 25 SSW LBF 35 ENE BUB 25 SW RWF 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GPT 35 NE MOB 15 WSW DHN 25 N DAB. ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW SRN UT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NERN AZ BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ERN U.S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SWWD THRU GREAT LAKES AND THEN EXTENDS AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO SERN CORNER OF NM. DRY LINE FROM SERN NM SWD THRU PECOS RIVER VALLEY WILL MIX ONLY A LITTLE EWD THIS AFTERNOON. ...W TX/SWRN OK... WITH LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADIENT FAVORS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE MAINTAINED THRU THE AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR TO VICINITY PECOS RIVER VALLEY. FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS ABOUT STALLED EXTENDS FORM S OF GAG SWWD TO NW OF CDS AND LBB THEN TO NEAR CNM. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT MAF/DRT INDICATED CAPPING INVERSION. HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN LID SUFFICIENCY BY MID AFTERNOON TO ALLOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF DRY LINE NWD TO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60F AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO LOW 80S MUCAPE WILL CLIMB TO 2500 J/KG W TX TO E OF DRY LINE. WHILE STRONGER WINDS AT MID LEVEL WILL BE WEST OF DRY LINE AROUND UPPER LOW...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOP SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS AND RESULT IN HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS TO 150 M2/S2.. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF TORNADOS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE EARLY IN AFTERNOON VICINITY AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE TX PANHANDLE AND THEN FURTHER S WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING INTO THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS W TX. DURING EVENING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KT W TX WHICH WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER DARK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND END AROUND 06Z. ..HALES.. 05/03/01