439 ACUS1 KMKC 040112 SWODY1 MKC AC 040107 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 30 SSE INK 35 NNW HOB 25 W CVS 25 SE TCC 40 SSE DHT 40 SW GAG 25 WNW CSM 25 SSW LTS 15 WNW ABI 30 SSW JCT 65 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE DTW 40 SSW JXN 40 N LAF 15 NE DEC 20 E TBN 15 E FYV 20 SW PGO 45 NNW TYR 35 ESE TPL 15 NNW ALI 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 20 NE 4CR 35 SSE SOW 45 N PRC 35 SSE CDC 45 ENE U24 30 E VEL 10 SW 4FC 10 WNW PUB 20 N LAA 35 E GLD 30 N GRI 40 NNE SUX 30 NNW RST 50 SSW IMT 60 NNE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 25 SE BML 25 NW GFL 20 NNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 15 SSE VRB. ...WRN TX AND SWRN OK... QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM MID MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK...THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SERN NM. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH FAR W TX. UPPER LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUTOFF OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY OVER THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA ARE ALSO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS MOVING NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS. ...SWRN TX... OTHER STORMS ARE SPREADING NNEWD FROM MX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD WITH TIME SUPPORTED BY INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/04/01  439 ACUS1 KMKC 040112 SWODY1 MKC AC 040107 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC. VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 30 SSE INK 35 NNW HOB 25 W CVS 25 SE TCC 40 SSE DHT 40 SW GAG 25 WNW CSM 25 SSW LTS 15 WNW ABI 30 SSW JCT 65 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE DTW 40 SSW JXN 40 N LAF 15 NE DEC 20 E TBN 15 E FYV 20 SW PGO 45 NNW TYR 35 ESE TPL 15 NNW ALI 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 60 S MRF 40 W INK 20 NE 4CR 35 SSE SOW 45 N PRC 35 SSE CDC 45 ENE U24 30 E VEL 10 SW 4FC 10 WNW PUB 20 N LAA 35 E GLD 30 N GRI 40 NNE SUX 30 NNW RST 50 SSW IMT 60 NNE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE HUL 25 SE BML 25 NW GFL 20 NNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 15 SSE VRB. ...WRN TX AND SWRN OK... QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM MID MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK...THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SERN NM. DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH FAR W TX. UPPER LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING CUTOFF OVER THE 4 CORNERS AREA...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY OVER THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA ARE ALSO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. STORMS MOVING NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS. ...SWRN TX... OTHER STORMS ARE SPREADING NNEWD FROM MX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD WITH TIME SUPPORTED BY INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL JET. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/04/01