996

ACUS2 KMKC 020737

SWODY2

MKC AC 020732



STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC.



VALID 031200Z - 041200Z



THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JVL

15 WSW CGX 35 W COU 35 WNW FYV 30 E AUS 30 NNW JCT 15 SE GAG

30 ESE SLN 25 NE DSM JVL.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 20 NNE JAX.



GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 35 W TCS

25 ESE SOW 45 S FLG 15 SW GCN 30 NNW PGA 15 SW U28 20 E GJT

25 N ALS 25 NE LVS 35 SW AMA 40 SE LBL 25 E CNK 35 S MCW 95 E APN

...CONT... 30 SSE PSM 40 N MSV 25 N AVP 15 SW TTN 15 NNE RIC

20 W DAN 60 SSE TYS 45 NNE HSV 30 ENE OWB 20 WSW MVN 60 SE HRO

40 NE TXK 20 N HOU 20 SE PSX.



...SYNOPSIS...

VORTICITY MAX NOW INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER NRN NV IS FORECAST

BY THE ETA / AVN TO DROP SEWD AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE UT

/ AZ BORDER BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  THIS LOW /

TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN

ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAKER

VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH SWLY FLOW FIELD

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IS FORECAST TO

MOVE FROM THE TX BIG BEND NEWD INTO OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 



AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY

STATIONARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS / MO

RIVER VALLEYS INTO OK.  



...SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...

MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN LOCATION OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SRN

PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  THE AVN DEPICTS THE FRONT AT 04/00Z EXTENDING

E-W FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO NWRN OK AND THEN

NEWD...WHILE THE ETA INDICATES THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN

NORTH TX / SWRN OK NWD TO N CENTRAL OK AND THEN NEWD.  THIS APPEARS

TO BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE AVN DEEPENS THE UPPER LOW IN THE

FOUR CORNERS REGION MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE ETA...WHILE KEEPING THIS

FEATURE QUASI-STATIONARY AS OPPOSED TO THE ETA WHICH MOVES IT

SLOWLY EWD.  



HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS

WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN / CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING IN THE TX

PANHANDLE REGION INTO WRN OK DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE

SURFACE FEATURES.  LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK

ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5

C/KM/ AND AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT

LIMITED AS WELL WITH ONLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE

ANTICIPATED ATTM.  



ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

IN A SW-NE BELT ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...

MODERATELY STRONG /GENERALLY 25 TO 35 KT/ SLY TO SSWLY FLOW NEAR

850 MB BENEATH 30 TO 45 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN

SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT FROM TX NEWD

INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LIMITED

INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE HIGH-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IN MOST

AREAS...HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -

PARTICULARLY IF ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES MORE THAN IS FORECAST. 

 

..GOSS.. 05/02/01