458 ACUS2 KMKC 021732 SWODY2 MKC AC 021726 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 W PVW 35 WNW AMA 60 SSW LBL 50 NNW GAG 15 WNW HUT 20 NE MHK 40 NNW LWD 35 ENE DSM 35 ESE CID 30 SSE MLI 45 SW PIA 20 SSE UIN 25 NNW COU 50 SW SZL 25 SSE CNU 35 WSW BVO 10 NNW OKC 25 WSW SPS 20 SW ABI 15 ESE BGS 10 NW MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 10 ESE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BOS 35 WSW ALB 15 SSW BGM 25 SE PSB 25 NW DCA DAN 30 WNW AND 30 N CHA 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 NNW FYV 25 WSW MKO 50 N FTW 45 WNW TPL 20 SSW SAT 25 S LRD ...CONT... 60 W MRF 35 NNE ROW 35 SSW LVS 50 WSW GUP 25 WSW U17 20 SW 4HV 25 N U28 45 WSW EGE 40 W PUB LHX 30 SSE MCK 10 ESE GRI 30 S SPW 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY ON THURSDAY...AIDING IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY. THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR MOVE WWD TO NEAR THE NM BORDER. ...MID MS VLY SWWD INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK AND NWRN TX... IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO FAR SWD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING A BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS...FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TX PANHANDLE-NRN OK-SERN KS INTO SRN IA AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND THESE MAY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OWING TO RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...AREAS THAT CAN RECEIVE SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL LIKELY HAVE SBCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THUS...TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...PROBABLY FAVORING THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO NWRN OK AND FROM NERN KS INTO SERN IA WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD...SLY TO SSWLY FLOW NEAR 850 MB BENEATH 30-40 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 05/02/01  458 ACUS2 KMKC 021732 SWODY2 MKC AC 021726 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC. VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 W PVW 35 WNW AMA 60 SSW LBL 50 NNW GAG 15 WNW HUT 20 NE MHK 40 NNW LWD 35 ENE DSM 35 ESE CID 30 SSE MLI 45 SW PIA 20 SSE UIN 25 NNW COU 50 SW SZL 25 SSE CNU 35 WSW BVO 10 NNW OKC 25 WSW SPS 20 SW ABI 15 ESE BGS 10 NW MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 10 ESE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BOS 35 WSW ALB 15 SSW BGM 25 SE PSB 25 NW DCA DAN 30 WNW AND 30 N CHA 35 WSW SDF 10 E SLO 15 SE VIH 40 NNW FYV 25 WSW MKO 50 N FTW 45 WNW TPL 20 SSW SAT 25 S LRD ...CONT... 60 W MRF 35 NNE ROW 35 SSW LVS 50 WSW GUP 25 WSW U17 20 SW 4HV 25 N U28 45 WSW EGE 40 W PUB LHX 30 SSE MCK 10 ESE GRI 30 S SPW 40 SE EAU 30 S ANJ. ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY ON THURSDAY...AIDING IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY. THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR MOVE WWD TO NEAR THE NM BORDER. ...MID MS VLY SWWD INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK AND NWRN TX... IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO FAR SWD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...MAINTAINING A BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS...FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TX PANHANDLE-NRN OK-SERN KS INTO SRN IA AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND THESE MAY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OWING TO RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...AREAS THAT CAN RECEIVE SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL LIKELY HAVE SBCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THUS...TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...PROBABLY FAVORING THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO NWRN OK AND FROM NERN KS INTO SERN IA WHERE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD...SLY TO SSWLY FLOW NEAR 850 MB BENEATH 30-40 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 05/02/01