982 ACUS2 KMKC 031736 SWODY2 MKC AC 031732 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW JCT 70 ENE P07 40 ENE FST 20 NW MAF 35 NE HOB 45 S CVS 40 SW TCC 30 NNW TCC 30 WSW DHT 50 E DHT 55 WNW CSM 35 W SPS 25 NNW BWD 25 NNW JCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 45 NNE MRF 35 SW HOB 15 NNE ROW 4CR 60 W ONM 20 WSW SOW 25 NW PRC 40 SW SGU 30 N P38 60 ENE ELY 20 WSW SLC 35 SE EVW 55 SE RKS 30 ENE CAG 20 S 4FC 15 NE COS 30 ESE LIC 40 WSW IML 25 WSW MHN 20 NNW ANW 40 W YKN 25 S SUX 60 WNW DSM 45 NE DSM 25 NW DBQ 35 NNW MKE 45 W MBS 90 ESE OSC 40 N ROC 30 NNW GFL 20 NNE PSM ...CONT... 40 NE ORF RDU 15 E HKY 15 NW LOZ SDF 25 ENE SLO 35 WSW STL 30 N SGF 20 S JLN 15 ESE MKO 35 ESE PRX 45 SSW GGG 10 ESE PSX. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LOW OVER SRN GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO TX PANHANDLE LATE IN PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POLAR AIR MASS WEDGED AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF NERN NM AND ACROSS NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL ERODE DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THIS REGION. IT APPEARS THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AS SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CVS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING UPSLOPE COMPONENT/COOLER TEMPS INTO THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS NWRN TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ECNTRL NM...IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF REGION LIKELY TO RECEIVE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NERN/ECNTRL NM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST AND SEWD INTO TX SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NERN U.S... SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE STRONGER BAND OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN PERIOD. DEEP WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY AGAIN FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID-UPPER 80S...ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WARM MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 05/03/01  982 ACUS2 KMKC 031736 SWODY2 MKC AC 031732 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC. VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW JCT 70 ENE P07 40 ENE FST 20 NW MAF 35 NE HOB 45 S CVS 40 SW TCC 30 NNW TCC 30 WSW DHT 50 E DHT 55 WNW CSM 35 W SPS 25 NNW BWD 25 NNW JCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 45 NNE MRF 35 SW HOB 15 NNE ROW 4CR 60 W ONM 20 WSW SOW 25 NW PRC 40 SW SGU 30 N P38 60 ENE ELY 20 WSW SLC 35 SE EVW 55 SE RKS 30 ENE CAG 20 S 4FC 15 NE COS 30 ESE LIC 40 WSW IML 25 WSW MHN 20 NNW ANW 40 W YKN 25 S SUX 60 WNW DSM 45 NE DSM 25 NW DBQ 35 NNW MKE 45 W MBS 90 ESE OSC 40 N ROC 30 NNW GFL 20 NNE PSM ...CONT... 40 NE ORF RDU 15 E HKY 15 NW LOZ SDF 25 ENE SLO 35 WSW STL 30 N SGF 20 S JLN 15 ESE MKO 35 ESE PRX 45 SSW GGG 10 ESE PSX. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LOW OVER SRN GREAT BASIN SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER FRIDAY AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO TX PANHANDLE LATE IN PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST POLAR AIR MASS WEDGED AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF NERN NM AND ACROSS NWRN TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL ERODE DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THIS REGION. IT APPEARS THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AS SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CVS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING UPSLOPE COMPONENT/COOLER TEMPS INTO THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS NWRN TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ECNTRL NM...IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF REGION LIKELY TO RECEIVE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NERN/ECNTRL NM AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST AND SEWD INTO TX SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM ROTATION AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NERN U.S... SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE STRONGER BAND OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN PERIOD. DEEP WLY FLOW WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY AGAIN FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID-UPPER 80S...ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WARM MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 05/03/01