557 ACUS2 KMKC 040641 SWODY2 MKC AC 040639 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC. VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBL 10 WNW GLD MCK CNK CNU PGO TYR 10 S CLL AUS SJT 40 ESE PVW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P07 BGS PVW CVS TCS SOW GCN CDC DPG MLD RIW RAP ATY RST LAF UNI BWI ACY ...CONT... CRE AGS AHN CSV PAH UNO HOT SHV HOU 40 E PSX. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY2 OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. AVN AND ETA MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG FROM NCENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KS ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER SOUTHWARD...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY COOL 700MB TEMPERATURES AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS-TX BY EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OK/NORTHEAST TX. ..HART.. 05/04/01  557 ACUS2 KMKC 040641 SWODY2 MKC AC 040639 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC. VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBL 10 WNW GLD MCK CNK CNU PGO TYR 10 S CLL AUS SJT 40 ESE PVW LBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P07 BGS PVW CVS TCS SOW GCN CDC DPG MLD RIW RAP ATY RST LAF UNI BWI ACY ...CONT... CRE AGS AHN CSV PAH UNO HOT SHV HOU 40 E PSX. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY2 OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS REGION. AVN AND ETA MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG FROM NCENTRAL KS TO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST KS ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER SOUTHWARD...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY COOL 700MB TEMPERATURES AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS-TX BY EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OK/NORTHEAST TX. ..HART.. 05/04/01