709 ACUS3 KMKC 021820 SWOMCD MKC MCD 021820 MSZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-022200- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632 FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/ SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA/THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF FLOW ...ORGANIZED SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS...A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE MOBILE RADAR SHOWS VERY WEAK MEAN FLOW OF 6 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. IT APPEARS THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH OR MARGINALLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..REHBEIN.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  709 ACUS3 KMKC 021820 SWOMCD MKC MCD 021820 MSZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-022200- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632 FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/ SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA/THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF FLOW ...ORGANIZED SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS...A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY AID ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE MOBILE RADAR SHOWS VERY WEAK MEAN FLOW OF 6 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. IT APPEARS THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO SUPPORT HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH OR MARGINALLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. ..REHBEIN.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...