340 ACUS3 KMKC 021947 SWOMCD MKC MCD 021946 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-022300- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...A WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS... SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ROGER MILLS COUNTY OKLAHOMA INTO MOTLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. SKIES ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED VERY STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH /LOW TO MID 60S/ AS A CAP...AS NOTED ON THE 18Z NORMAN SOUNDING...PREVENTS MUCH MIXING. AS A RESULT...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN THE 30 - 40 KNOT RANGE...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MODERATELY STRONG FLOW AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES IS LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL BE DICTATED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. ..REHBEIN.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  340 ACUS3 KMKC 021947 SWOMCD MKC MCD 021946 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-022300- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA/EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...A WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS... SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ROGER MILLS COUNTY OKLAHOMA INTO MOTLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. SKIES ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED VERY STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH /LOW TO MID 60S/ AS A CAP...AS NOTED ON THE 18Z NORMAN SOUNDING...PREVENTS MUCH MIXING. AS A RESULT...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN THE 30 - 40 KNOT RANGE...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MODERATELY STRONG FLOW AS WELL AS THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS/STEEP LAPSE RATES IS LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF THE LINE WILL BE DICTATED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. ..REHBEIN.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...