423 ACUS3 KMKC 022211 SWOMCD MKC MCD 022211 TXZ000-OKZ000-030000- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 FOR NWRN TX/SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187... THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. TRIPLE POINT/SURFACE LOW CENTER REMAINS BETWEEN AMA AND LBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT/LEADING WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NWRN OK NEAR GAG. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /ALONG WITH ETA FORECASTS/ SUGGEST FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY CONVERGENCE FROM W-CENTRAL TX INTO FAR NWRN OK. LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE 3500-4000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND VERY WEAK CAP INVOF FRONT. VWP/S AND PROFILERS YIELD VERY LITTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR/MEAN WIND...TRAINING OF CELLS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER HALL/MOTLEY COUNTIES OF NRN TX IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH OTHER SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS THEY DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN OK. ..EVANS.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  423 ACUS3 KMKC 022211 SWOMCD MKC MCD 022211 TXZ000-OKZ000-030000- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 FOR NWRN TX/SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187... THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. TRIPLE POINT/SURFACE LOW CENTER REMAINS BETWEEN AMA AND LBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT/LEADING WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NWRN OK NEAR GAG. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /ALONG WITH ETA FORECASTS/ SUGGEST FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY CONVERGENCE FROM W-CENTRAL TX INTO FAR NWRN OK. LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE 3500-4000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND VERY WEAK CAP INVOF FRONT. VWP/S AND PROFILERS YIELD VERY LITTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR/MEAN WIND...TRAINING OF CELLS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER HALL/MOTLEY COUNTIES OF NRN TX IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH OTHER SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS THEY DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN OK. ..EVANS.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  863 ACUS3 KMKC 022211 SWOMCD MKC MCD 022211 TXZ000-OKZ000-030000- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 FOR NWRN TX/SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187... THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. TRIPLE POINT/SURFACE LOW CENTER REMAINS BETWEEN AMA AND LBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT/LEADING WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NWRN OK NEAR GAG. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /ALONG WITH ETA FORECASTS/ SUGGEST FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY CONVERGENCE FROM W-CENTRAL TX INTO FAR NWRN OK. LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE 3500-4000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND VERY WEAK CAP INVOF FRONT. VWP/S AND PROFILERS YIELD VERY LITTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR/MEAN WIND...TRAINING OF CELLS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER HALL/MOTLEY COUNTIES OF NRN TX IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH OTHER SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS THEY DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN OK. ..EVANS.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  863 ACUS3 KMKC 022211 SWOMCD MKC MCD 022211 TXZ000-OKZ000-030000- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635 FOR NWRN TX/SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187... THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. TRIPLE POINT/SURFACE LOW CENTER REMAINS BETWEEN AMA AND LBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT/LEADING WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NWRN OK NEAR GAG. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE /ALONG WITH ETA FORECASTS/ SUGGEST FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY CONVERGENCE FROM W-CENTRAL TX INTO FAR NWRN OK. LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE 3500-4000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND VERY WEAK CAP INVOF FRONT. VWP/S AND PROFILERS YIELD VERY LITTLE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR/MEAN WIND...TRAINING OF CELLS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER HALL/MOTLEY COUNTIES OF NRN TX IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH OTHER SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS THEY DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN OK. ..EVANS.. 05/02/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...