245

ACUS3 KMKC 030006

SWOMCD

MKC MCD 030005

OKZ000-KSZ000-030200-



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636 FOR CENTRAL AND PARTS OF ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...



ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT

HOUR NORTH OF WW 187...INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF ERN KS.



ONGOING ACTIVITY INVOF STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUES

TO LIFT NWD AT 40-45 KT.  EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS ACTIVITY INTO

WRN KS NEAR P28 AROUND 130Z IF IT PERSISTS.  VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO

INDICATES CONVECTIVE TOWERS HAVE INCREASED NEAR P28 IN THE PAST

HOUR...INDICATING WEAK CAP MAY BE ERODING INVOF THIS PORTION OF THE

FRONT.



THOUGH WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SURFACE-BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER

OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS

WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND

HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.



..EVANS.. 05/02/01



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...






245

ACUS3 KMKC 030006

SWOMCD

MKC MCD 030005

OKZ000-KSZ000-030200-



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636 FOR CENTRAL AND PARTS OF ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...



ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT

HOUR NORTH OF WW 187...INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF ERN KS.



ONGOING ACTIVITY INVOF STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK CONTINUES

TO LIFT NWD AT 40-45 KT.  EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THIS ACTIVITY INTO

WRN KS NEAR P28 AROUND 130Z IF IT PERSISTS.  VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO

INDICATES CONVECTIVE TOWERS HAVE INCREASED NEAR P28 IN THE PAST

HOUR...INDICATING WEAK CAP MAY BE ERODING INVOF THIS PORTION OF THE

FRONT.



THOUGH WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SURFACE-BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER

OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS

WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND

HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.



..EVANS.. 05/02/01



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...