075

ACUS3 KMKC 031756

SWOMCD

MKC MCD 031755

TXZ000-NMZ000-032100-



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639 FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...



THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE

SURFACE FRONT OVER PARTS OF TEXAS.  A WEATHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED

WITHIN THE HOUR.



THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT

EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE

SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WHILE THERE

HAS BEEN A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...THERE HAS

BEEN SOME HEATING WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO BECOME

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN OVER

WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION

IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.  THE 18Z MIDLAND SOUNDING SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN

CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING AND RISE IN THE CAP AS WELL AS VERY STEEP

LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A RESULT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT.



THE JAYTON PROFILER SHOWS VEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE

SOMEWHAT WEAK.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ROTATION ...BUT THE

WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.  HOWEVER

...THE WEAKENING CAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...STEEP LAPSE

RATES AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH

VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.



..REHBEIN.. 05/03/01



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...






075

ACUS3 KMKC 031756

SWOMCD

MKC MCD 031755

TXZ000-NMZ000-032100-



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639 FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...



THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE

SURFACE FRONT OVER PARTS OF TEXAS.  A WEATHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED

WITHIN THE HOUR.



THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT

EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE

SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WHILE THERE

HAS BEEN A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING...THERE HAS

BEEN SOME HEATING WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO BECOME

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.  THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN OVER

WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION

IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.  THE 18Z MIDLAND SOUNDING SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN

CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING AND RISE IN THE CAP AS WELL AS VERY STEEP

LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A RESULT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT.



THE JAYTON PROFILER SHOWS VEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE

SOMEWHAT WEAK.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ROTATION ...BUT THE

WEAK FLOW SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW.  HOWEVER

...THE WEAKENING CAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...STEEP LAPSE

RATES AND THE INCREASING INSTABILITY INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH

VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.  THEREFORE...A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.



..REHBEIN.. 05/03/01



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...