282 ACUS3 KMKC 032244 SWOMCD MKC MCD 032243 TXZ000-040130- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642 FOR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...189... LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY LITTLE CAP ACROSS WRN TX...WITH MEAN- MIXED CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INVOF TRIPLE POINT JUST WSW OF LBB...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION IS PERSISTING INVOF COLD FRONT WITHIN SWRN PORTION OF WW 188. 21Z RUC AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER SWRN TX SUGGEST DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY WWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-35 KT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND NEAR FRONT NW OF CDS SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO /MAINLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/. ELSEWHERE ...SHEAR APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL FOR ANY SUSTAINED TORNADO THREAT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/03/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...  282 ACUS3 KMKC 032244 SWOMCD MKC MCD 032243 TXZ000-040130- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642 FOR SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...189... LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY LITTLE CAP ACROSS WRN TX...WITH MEAN- MIXED CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INVOF TRIPLE POINT JUST WSW OF LBB...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION IS PERSISTING INVOF COLD FRONT WITHIN SWRN PORTION OF WW 188. 21Z RUC AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER SWRN TX SUGGEST DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY WWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM BORDER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-35 KT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND NEAR FRONT NW OF CDS SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO /MAINLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/. ELSEWHERE ...SHEAR APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL FOR ANY SUSTAINED TORNADO THREAT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/03/01 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...